Distilled Thoughts On Hydrogen

All my concerns about hydrogen #hopium, in one convenient place!

Hydrogen is being sold as if it were the “Swiss Army knife” of the energy transition. Useful for every energy purpose under the sun. Sadly, hydrogen is rather like THIS Swiss Army knife, the Wenger 16999 Giant. It costs $1400, weighs 7 pounds, and is a suboptimal tool for just about every purpose!

The Wenger 16999 Giant (the Wenger brand is discontinued- owned by Victorinox)

Why do you hate hydrogen so much? I DON’T HATE HYDROGEN! I think it’s a dumb thing to use as a fuel, or as a way to store electricity. That’s all.

I also think it’s part of a bait and switch scam being put forward by the fossil fuel industry. And what about the electrolyzer and fuelcell companies, the technical gas suppliers, natural gas utilities and the renewable electricity companies that are pushing hydrogen for energy uses? They’re just the fossil fuel industry’s “useful idiots” in this regard.

https://www.jadecove.com/research/hydrogenscam

If you prefer to listen rather than read, I appeared as a guest on the Redefining Energy Podcast, with hosts Laurent Segalen and Gerard Reid: episodes 19 and 44

https://redefining-energy.com/

…or my participation in a recent Reuters Renewables debate event, attended by about 3000

This article gives links to my articles which give my opinions about hydrogen in depth, with some links to articles by others which I’ve found helpful and accurate.

Hydrogen For Transport

Not for cars and light trucks. The idea seems appealing, but the devil is in the details if you look at this more than casually.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hydrogen-fuelcell-vehicle-great-idea-theory-paul-martin/

When you look at two cars with the same range that you can actually buy, it turns out that my best case round-trip efficiency estimate- 37%- is too optimistic. The hydrogen fuelcell car uses 3.2x as much energy and costs over 5.4x as much per mile driven.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/mirai-fcev-vs-model-3-bev-paul-martin/

What about trucks? Ships? Trains? Aircraft?

For trucks- I agree with James Carter- they’re going EV. EVs will do the work from the short range end of the duty, and biofuels will take the longer range, remote/rural delivery market for logistical reasons. Hydrogen has no market left in the middle in my opinion.

Trains: same deal.

Aircraft? Forget about jet aircraft powered by hydrogen. We’ll use biofuels for them, or we’ll convert hydrogen and CO2 to e-fuels if we can’t find enough biofuels. And if we do that, we’ll cry buckets of tears over the cost, because inefficiency means high cost.

(Note that the figures provided by Transport and Environment over-state the efficiency of hydrogen and of the engines used in the e-fuels cases- but in jets, a turbofan is likely about as efficient as a fuelcell in terms of thermodynamic work per unit of fuel LHV fed. The point of the figure is to show the penalty you pay by converting hydrogen and CO2 to an e-fuel- the original T&E chart over-stated that efficiency significantly)

Ships? There’s no way in my view that the very bottom-feeders of the transport energy market- used to burning basically liquid coal (petroleum residuum-derived bunker fuel with 3.5% sulphur, laden with metals and belching out GHGs without a care in the world) are going to switch to hydrogen, much less ammonia, with its whopping 11-19% round-trip efficiency.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ammonia-pneumonia-paul-martin/

Heating

Fundamentally, why do we burn things? To make heat, of course!

Right now, we burn things to make heat to make electricity. Hence, it is cheaper to heat things using whatever we’re burning to make electricity, than it is to use electricity. Even with a coefficient of performance for a heat pump, so we can pump 3 joules of heat for every joule of electricity we feed, it’s still cheaper to skip the electrical middleman and use the fuel directly, saving all that capital and all those energy losses.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/home-heating-electrification-paul-martin/

Accordingly, hydrogen- made from a fuel (methane), is not used as a fuel. Methane is the cheaper option, obviously!

In the future, we’re going to start with electricity made from wind, solar, geothermal etc. And thence, it will be cheaper to use electricity directly to make heat, rather than losing 30% bare minimum of our electricity to make a fuel (hydrogen) from it first. By cutting out the molecular middleman, we’ll save energy and capital. It will be cheaper to heat using electricity.

I know it’s backwards to the way you’re thinking now. But it’s not wrong.

Replacing comfort heating use of natural gas with hydrogen is fraught with difficulties.

(this is my peer reviewed article in Energy Science and Engineering on this topic in detail)

https://scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ese3.1861

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hydrogen-replace-natural-gas-numbers-paul-martin/

Hydrogen takes 3x as much energy to move than natural gas, which takes about as much energy to move as electricity. But per unit exergy moved, electricity wins, hands down. Those thinking it’s easier to move hydrogen than electricity are fooling themselves. And those who think that re-using the natural gas grid just makes sense, despite the problems mentioned in my article above, are suffering from the sunk cost fallacy- and are buying a bill of goods from the fossil fuel industry. When the alternative is to go out of business, people imagine all sorts of things might make sense if it allows them to stay in business.

Hydrogen as Energy Storage

We’re going to need to store electricity from wind and solar- that is obvious.

We’re also going to need to store some energy in molecules, for those weeks in the winter when the solar panels are covered in snow, and a high pressure area has set in and wind has dropped to nothing.

It is, however, a non-sequitur to conclude that therefore we must make those molecules from electricity! It’s possible, but it is by no means the only option nor the most sensible one.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hydrogen-from-renewable-electricity-our-future-paul-martin/

…But…Green Hydrogen is Going to Be So Cheap!

No, sorry folks, it isn’t.

The reality is, black hydrogen is much cheaper. And if you don’t carbon tax the hell out of black hydrogen, that’s what you’re going to get.

Replacing black hydrogen has to be our focus- our priority- for any green hydrogen we make. But sadly, blue (CCS) hydrogen is likely to be cheaper. Increasing carbon taxes are going to turn black hydrogen into muddy black-blue hydrogen, as the existing users of steam methane reformers (SMRs) gradually start to capture and bury the easy portion of the CO2 coming from their gas purification trains- the portion they’re simply dumping into the atmosphere for free at the moment.

https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/ese3.956

There is no green hydrogen to speak of right now. Why not? Because nobody can afford it. It costs a multiple of the cost of blue hydrogen, which costs a multiple of the cost of black hydrogen.

The reality is, you can’t afford either the electricity, or the capital, to make green hydrogen. The limit cases are instructive: imagine you can get electricity for 2 cents per kWh- sounds great, right? H2 production all in is about 55 kWh/kg. That’s $1.10 per kg just to buy the electricity- nothing left for capital or other operating costs. And yet, that’s the current price in the US gulf coast, for wholesale hydrogen internal to an ammonia plant like this one- brand new, being constructed in Texas City- using Air Products’ largest black hydrogen SMR.

https://www.bizjournals.com/houston/news/2020/01/08/major-ammonia-plant-project-to-start-construction.html

At the other end, let’s imagine you get your electricity for free! But you only get it for free at 45% capacity factor- which by the way would be the entire output of an offshore wind park- about as good as you can possibly get for renewable electricity (solar here in Ontario for instance is only 16% capacity factor…)

If you had 1 MW worth of electrolyzer, you could make about 200 kg of H2 per day at 45% capacity factor. If you could sell it all for $1.50/kg, and you could do that for 20 yrs, and whoever gave you the money didn’t care about earning a return on their investment, you could pay about $2.1 million for your electrolyzer set-up- the electrolyzer, water treatment, storage tanks, buildings etc.- assuming you didn’t have any other operating costs (you will have). And…sadly…that’s about what an electrolyzer costs right now, installed. And no, your electrolyzer will not last more than 20 yrs either.

Will the capital costs get better? Sure! With scale, the electrolyzer will get cheaper per MW, as people start mass producing them. And as you make your project bigger, the cost of the associated stuff as a proportion of the total project cost will drop to- to an extent, not infinitely.

But the fundamental problem here is that a) electricity is never free b) cheap electricity is never available 24/7, so it always has a poor capacity factor and c) electrolyzers are not only not free, they are very expensive and only part of the cost of a hydrogen production facility.

Can you improve the capacity factor by using batteries? If you do, your cost per kWh increases a lot- and that dispatchable electricity in the battery is worth a lot more to the grid than you could possibly make by making hydrogen from it.

Can you improve the capacity factor by making your electrolyzer smaller than the capacity of your wind/solar park? Yes, but then the cost per kWh of your feed electricity increases because you’re using your wind/solar facility less efficiently, throwing away a bunch of its kWh. And I thought that concern over wasting that surplus electricity was the whole reason we were making hydrogen from it!?!?

John Poljak has done a good job running the numbers. And the numbers don’t lie. Getting hydrogen to the scale necessary to compete with blue much less black hydrogen is going to take tens to hundreds of billions of dollars of money that is better spent doing something which would actually decarbonize our economy.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6761296385645117440/

UPDATE: John’s most recent paper makes it even clearer- the claims being made by green hydrogen proponents of ultra-low costs per kg of H2 are “aspirational” and very hard to justify in the near term. They require a sequence of miracles to come true.

https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6826148496073207809/

Why Does This Make You So Angry, Paul?

We’ve known these things for a long time. Nothing has changed, really. Renewable electricity is more available, popular, and cheaper than ever. But nothing about hydrogen has changed. 120 megatonnes of the stuff was made last year, and 98.5% of it was made from fossils, without carbon capture. It’s a technical gas, used as a chemical reagent. It is not used as a fuel or energy carrier right now, at all. And that’s for good reasons associated with economics that come right from the basic thermodynamics.

What we have is interested parties muddying the waters, selling governments a bill of goods- and believe me, those parties intend to issue an invoice when that bill of goods has been sold! And that’s leading us toward an end that I think is absolutely the wrong way to go: it’s leading us toward a re-creation of the fossil fuel paradigm, selling us a fossil fuel with a thick obscuring coat of greenwash. That’s not in the interest of solving the crushing problem of anthropogenic global warming:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/global-warming-risk-arises-from-three-facts-paul-martin/

Where Does Hydrogen Make Sense?

We need to solve the decarbonization problem OF hydrogen, first. Hydrogen is a valuable (120 million tonne per year) commodity CHEMICAL – a valuable reducing agent and feedstock to innumerable processes- most notably ammonia as already mentioned. That’s a 40 million tonne market, essential for human life, almost entirely supplied by BLACK hydrogen right now. Fix those problems FIRST, before dreaming of having any excess to waste as an inefficient, ineffective heating or comfort fuel!!!

Here’s my version of @Michael Liebreich’s hydrogen merit order ladder. I’ve added coloured circles to the applications where I think there are better solutions THAN hydrogen. Only the ones in black make sense to me in terms of long-term decarbonization, assuming we solve the problem OF hydrogen by finding ways to afford to not make it from methane or coal with CO2 emissions to the atmosphere- virtually the only way we actually make hydrogen today.

If Not Hydrogen, Then What?

Here’s my suite of solutions. The only use I have for green hydrogen is as a replacement for black hydrogen- very important so we can keep eating.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-energy-solutions-paul-martin/

There are a few uses for H2 to replace difficult industrial applications too. Reducing iron ore to iron metal is one example- it is already a significant user of hydrogen and more projects are being planned and piloted as we speak. But there, hydrogen is not being used as a fuel per se- it is being used as a chemical reducing agent to replace carbon monoxide made from coal coke. The reaction between iron oxide and hydrogen is actually slightly endothermic. The heat can be supplied with electricity- in fact arc furnaces are already widely used to make steel from steel scrap.

In summary: the hydrogen economy is a bill of goods, being sold to you. You may not see the invoice for that bill of goods, but the fossil fuel industry has it ready and waiting for you, or your government, to pay it- once you’ve taken the green hydrogen bait.

DISCLAIMER: everything I say here, and in each of these articles, is my own opinion. I come by it honestly, after having worked with and made hydrogen and syngas for 30 yrs. If I’ve said something in error, please by all means correct me! Point out why what I’ve said is wrong, with references, and I’ll happily correct it. If you disagree with me, disagree with me in the comments and we’ll have a lively discussion- but go ad hominem and I’ll block you.

Mark Carney’s Speech- Interpreted for 5 yr olds

The authorship of this piece is unknown to me- I came across it in my Facebook feed.

“There has been a lot of discussion over the past few days about our Prime Minister’s speech at the World Economic Forum. I believe he delivered remarks that will be remembered and referenced for years to come, and that they may serve as a catalyst to shift some of the rhetoric that has been steadily rising from south of the border.

That said, I also expect there will be backlash. It’s likely that anonymous accounts and foreign influence machines will go into overdrive—pushing one-sided memes, isolating tiny fragments of the speech, and using them to shape opinions among people who didn’t read the full remarks or, unfortunately, couldn’t grasp the language and ideas being expressed.

So, being the instigator that I am, I decided to try something different. I asked my AI friends to rewrite the Prime Minister’s speech as if it were being delivered to an audience of three-year-olds.

And as it turns out, the message is actually pretty simple.

Hello everyone 👋

Sometimes, big kids fight.

The biggest kids try to take toys.

The smaller kids feel scared.

For a long time, we had playground rules.

The rules said:

“Be fair.”

“Don’t push.”

“Share.”

But now, some big kids don’t follow the rules anymore.

Some kids pretend the rules still work.

They smile.

They nod.

They say, “Okay,” even when it’s not okay.

They do this so they don’t get in trouble.

A long time ago, a man told a story.

It was about a shopkeeper.

The shopkeeper put a sign in his window.

He didn’t believe the sign.

But he kept it there anyway.

He was pretending.

The pretending made the bad system strong.

The truth made it weak.

When one person takes the sign down,

the lie starts to break.

It’s time to take the signs down.

For many years, Canada played nicely.

We followed the rules.

We trusted the playground.

And it worked for a while.

But now the playground has changed.

Some kids use food, toys, and games to control others.

They say, “Do what I want, or else.”

That means the old way doesn’t work anymore.

So what do we do?

We could all build tall walls.

We could hide.

We could say, “Mine!”

But a playground full of walls is lonely.

And sad.

And weaker.

Instead, we can work together.

Canada wants to do two things:

• Be kind and fair

• Be strong and smart

We believe in rules.

We believe in helping people.

But we also know not everyone plays the same way.

So we open our eyes.

We don’t pretend.

We deal with the world as it is.

Canada is getting stronger at home.

We are building things.

Learning things.

Protecting ourselves.

And we are making many friends.

Different friends for different problems.

Helping each other when we can.

Because if we sit alone at lunch,

we might be next.

When smaller kids work together,

they don’t get pushed around as much.

The most important thing is this:

Stop pretending everything is fine.

Say what is real.

Be fair to everyone the same way.

Build what you believe in.

Canada has a lot to share.

Energy.

Smart people.

Ideas.

Kindness.

Canada is a place where many people live together.

We talk loud.

We argue.

But we care.

And we keep going.

The old playground isn’t coming back.

That’s okay.

We don’t cry about it.

We build a better one.

We take the sign down.

We tell the truth.

We stand together.

That is Canada’s choice.

And anyone can walk with us.

Thank you 😊

Why Can’t Batteries Store More Than 4 Hours of Energy?

TL&DR Summary:  they can.  But the economics of energy storage depend on the application, and no energy storage option makes cheap kWh unless it is used to deliver enough kWh.  Long term storage must have an ultra-low capital cost to be affordable, because otherwise its cost is not distributed over a large enough number of kWh.

There’s a lot of misunderstanding around batteries.  Myths abound.  The myths arise because a kernel of truth is misunderstood and then turned into popcorn by the FUD spreaders (fear, uncertainty and doubt) and nirvana fallacy pushers.

One popular myth, or misunderstanding, is that batteries can’t store more than about four hours worth of electricity.

A lithium ion battery can store energy for months.  Self-discharge rates in LFP cells are on the order of 1-5% per month.  So no, it’s not that if you store energy for longer in a battery, it will drain away or disappear.

However, it is quite a different matter to say that you could afford to build a battery storage system which stored a month’s worth of electricity!

The economics of energy storage are pretty simple, but you need to understand them to know why people target a particular storage duration- and why the problem of long duration or worst of all, seasonal energy storage, has so many people scratching their heads and looking at all sorts of weird and wonderful things to solve it.

Numbers are instructive here.  So let’s take a simple example:  a home energy system.

Let’s say that you buy LFP batteries and put them together into a 100 kWh pack, with a total cost of $100 USD per kWh of storage.  That’s quite achievable these days, if you don’t need a pre-packaged, certified battery product “solution”- just one that is safe enough to use and reliable enough to depend on.

Large format LFP cells have a guaranteed cycle life on the order of 6000 cycles, meaning that you can charge and discharge these batteries to (near) their full capacity about 6000 times before they drop to 80% of their original capacity.  6000 daily cycles would take 16.4 years.

All lithium ion batteries also start degrading from the first time they’re charged.  So-called “calendar life” results in a degradation of about 1% per year, even when they’re just stored, not cycled at all.  It would therefore take 20 years for these batteries to degrade to 80% of original capacity even if they were never cycled.  If the batteries are stored at 90% state of charge (SOC), degradation can be much faster-up to 3% per year, or 6.7 years to drop to 80% of original capacity.  So in a sense, the cycle life of Li ion batteries is to some degree a “use it or lose it” proposition.

But to make the math simple, let’s make the following assumptions:

100 kWh of battery storage

90% state of charge per cycle, i.e. taking the cells from 100% to 10% SOC each cycle

One full cycle per day

6000 cycles guaranteed life.  And calendar degradation of a little more than 1% per year, so that the battery will still need replacement in 16.4 years

$100/kWh initial capital cost.

90% round trip efficiency, i.e. if you feed 10 kWh of electricity to the charging circuits, you get 9 kWh back out again at the input of your inverter.

The battery would therefore return 100 kWh x 6000 cycles x 0.9 SOC x 0.9 efficiency = 486,000 kWh, delivered over 16.4 years of operation.

The raw capital cost of the battery would be $100/kWh x 100 kWh = $10,000.  Of course we pay that on day 1.

Ignoring interest rates, the simple cost of storage per kWh returned is therefore $10,000/486,000 kWh = $0.02/kWh, plus the cost of electricity fed to the battery (divided by 0.9, because we must feed 10 kWh to get 9 back due to the efficiency).

Add in an interest rate, because we don’t get capital for free, and the cost per kWh goes up, because the kWh are delivered in the future, whereas the capital must be paid for on day 1.

What happens if we chose to do a cycle every 2 days instead?

Nothing changes, except the number of cycles, which now drops to 3000 in 16.4 years.  The battery will still need retirement due to calendar life.  The simple cost per kWh simply doubles as a result, to $0.04/kWh.

What happens if we were to cycle it only once per month?

Wow- now the simple cost of capital is spread over only 16.4 x 12 = 197 cycles.  The cost per returned kWh is now $0.63/kWh! Or maybe a little less, if the battery cycled so infrequently, lasts 20 rather than 16.4 years.

You can see what happens if we cycle the battery less frequently, just from this simple math!  And remember- real projects need to provide a return to their investors, so our simple cost of capital calculation (ignoring discount rates, i.e. interest) underestimates the real costs per kWh.  And for real projects, the revenue from production more than 20 years after the project is initiated, at the sorts of interest rates expected by lenders or investors, ends up not mattering all that much.

The same sorts of calculations can be done for every kind of energy storage scheme imaginable.  And the end results are similar.

You can summarize the influence of each factor as follows:

Capital cost: the cost per stored kWh, or per potentially returned kWh in lower efficiency storage schemes, is strongly dependent on the capex of the battery.  Expensive batteries can only pay back their investors if they are cycled frequently.  Batteries which will get few cycles per month, or per year, because they are designed with longer discharge periods in mind, will need to either be very cheap, or to have very desperate customers willing to pay a high cost per returned kWh.

Cycles: more frequent and hence shorter cycles, reduce the cost per returned kWh, irrespective of capital cost

Cycle life: as long as cycle life is long enough to match calendar life, increasing cycle life beyond this, doesn’t matter in economic terms- though it might matter in lifecycle environmental impact terms.  And money spent to extend cycle life, generates diminishing returns.  Note that while sealed batteries of all kinds have both cycle and calendar life, other schemes such as flow batteries, pumped hydro, compressed air storage etc., all have other things like operation and maintenance costs that vary in more complex ways with how frequently and deeply and quickly they’re cycled

Efficiency:  high efficiency helps by dropping the cost per returned kWh.  Low efficiency means that the cost per returned kWh increases.  It’s also important to note that with Li ion batteries, which have high efficiency, there is little difference between storage capacity (the ability to absorb kWh) and returned energy capacity.  However, if you have a 100 kWh battery or storage system which has return-from-storage efficiency of only 50% (which may be the case with iron-air batteries), it’s really only a 50 kWh battery.  Stating its cost per stored kWh, gives a false notion of the cost of each kWh returned.

The implications for various use cases and types of storage batteries are worthy of consideration.

Solar Storage: the presence of significant solar in the supply mix, more or less guarantees one cycle per day to a grid storage system.  And grid storage doesn’t care much about energy density per unit mass or volume.  But what do you do to level out differences between sunny days and cloudy/rainy ones?  Or between summer and winter, particularly in snowy regions?  You certainly will NEVER use batteries to store excess solar kWh in summer, for use in winter- you’ll need another strategy.

Aircraft: electric aircraft would more or less be guaranteed one or more cycles per day.  Their main concern therefore isn’t capital cost per kWh stored, but things more important to feasibility:  energy density per unit mass and volume for instance

Ships:  transoceanic ships are very sensitive to fuel/energy cost, and would initially seem like a good option to be electrified if they can be recharged with inexpensive electricity from wind and solar.  However, because it takes a ship over a month to cross the Pacific at an economic travel speed, any battery used in a ship would need to be very, very low in capital cost, or each returned kWh within its calendar life will be unaffordable to the ship’s operator.  However, applications like ferries are at the opposite end of the spectrum.  A short distance ferry may have its battery cycled several times per day, and are therefore an obvious target for electrification

Flow Batteries: the putative benefit of flow batteries is that they allow the decoupling of power (energy produced per unit time, ie. kW) from storage of energy (i.e. kWh).  A vanadium redox flow battery (VRB) is the simplest example:  a flow battery stack, rather like a fuelcell but constructed differently, is used to charge and discharge the battery, and its size (and cost) is determined by the rate at which it must be able to absorb power during charging and supply power during discharging.  Energy storage, in contrast, consists of paired tanks, generally plastic tanks, full of anolyte and catholyte- solutions of vanadium ions in sulphuric acid.  Charging and discharging involve pumping solution from one tank to the other.  While the tanks themselves are very inexpensive, the vanadium solution sadly isn’t.  Enough vanadium solution to store 1 kWh currently costs over $100 at market prices for V2O5 and making reasonable assumptions for the cost of making a suitable electrolyte solution.  When LFP prismatic cells can be purchased retail for $50/kWh, and with the potential for sodium ion batteries to be cheaper still in no more than a decade, VRBs therefore seem to be a technology that is dead in the water.

Iron/Air batteries: proponents such as the well funded startup Form Energy, propose to use very simple (in concept) reversible aqueous iron corrosion and plating as a method for very low cost long duration energy storage.  However, the devil seems to be firmly in the details here.  Very low efficiency combined with practical constraints related to the rates of charging and discharging, the stability of the battery in storage (ie. High self discharge rates) etc., mean that to be competitive, iron-air batteries would need to be very, very cheap per stored kWh to fill a niche as longer term storage media which are therefore cycled infrequently.  It is not clear that they will achieve the necessary low costs at scale to find a niche.

Hydrogen:  low cycle efficiency plus high capex and low energy density per unit volume, make hydrogen a structurally bad battery scheme.  While the cost per stored kWh of hydrogen energy in a salt cavern might be very low, the very best case efficiency is about 37% on a cycle basis, i.e. buy 3 kWh, get 1 back.  Furthermore, the capital cost per kg of hydrogen produced, is strongly sensitive to capacity factor of the electrolysis equipment.  Similarly, the cost per returned kWh is strongly sensitive to the capacity factor of the equipment (fuelcell or gas turbine power plant) that is used to make electricity again from the hydrogen.  Furthermore, electricity production and storage locations are not co-located, requiring bespoke new infrastructure to move hydrogen from where it’s produced to where it’s to be stored, and then on to where it will be burned again.  The end result is that the notion that we will make hydrogen only from renewable electricity when it is available in excess, and then store it for use during kalt dunkeflaute conditions that might exist only a week or two per year, is just utterly an economic myth.  It will never be affordable as an energy storage scheme.

Emergency Response/Dunkelflaute Power Storage

Any emergency backup power solution must meet the following criteria to be successful:

1)        It must be reliable, without fail.  If this condition isn’t met, the solution is worthless

2)       It must have a low capex, because it will be operated infrequently and hence it will have very few kWh to spread its capex over

3)       Opex (fuel cost) and efficiency are important, but secondary to capex, again because there are few kWh being consumed so total cost of fuel is small

4)       It is presumed that all the strategies practical to mitigate and minimize the depth and duration of these emergencies, have already been deployed:  overbuilding renewables, wider bidirectional grids, smart demand management etc., as detailed in my article about the whole subject of energy decarbonization:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-energy-solutions-paul-martin

To me, the solution that best fits this need, is stored fuels. Fossil fuels perhaps at first, and ultimately, if we are worried about the last few percent of decarbonization, biofuels.

Best of all, we have fossil fuel infrastructure which can be repurposed to meet this need.  There are, for instance, existing transmission and storage infrastructure for natural gas, which are fully paid for, which have no other use in a decarbonized future, and which therefore only need to be maintained.  We could, for instance, store a whole year’s worth of anaerobic digestion biogas in the existing natural gas infrastructure, using it only to supply those few applications which need fire rather than just heat, and also serving as a reservoir of energy for both emergencies and the dunkelflaute (periods of cold, dark calm when wind and solar power fall away for periods of days to a week).

These emergency generation assets would need to be low capex, because they would be used to make comparatively few kWh each year.  And any asset that is used infrequently, will be very dependent on the cost of capital, i.e. the borrowing cost to pay for it.  Such assets are therefore best publicly owned, because governments have the lowest borrowing cost.

If you find the topic of energy storage interesting, Rosemary Barnes’ video is worth watching:

Disclaimer: this article was written by a human, who uses generative AI only to generate images that I can’t draw myself, not to write anything. Humans, just like the AI who scrapes their content without permission, are known to make mistakes from time to time. If you find a mistake, feel free to bring it to my attention with good references and I’ll happily change the text- and my mind.

If however what you don’t like is that I’ve taken a dump on your pet idea, feel free to contact my employer, Spitfire Research, who will be happy to tell you to piss off and write your own article.

A Short Screed About Biofuels

Apologies to the millions of artists whose work was scraped by Google to make their generative AI tool possible.

TL&DR Summary: we’ll need biofuels for shipping and aviation, which need rather than merely want liquid fuels.  We’ll also potentially need biofuels to serve as our reservoir of stored fuels to serve periods of renewable electricity drought and to respond to other emergencies.  While these fuels are absolutely possible to produce in the quantities required, they will at scale represent quite a high cost per tonne of net CO2e emissions averted.  They are with certainty going to be cheaper at scale than any fuel made from its combustion products using electricity.  While some hydrogen will be needed to deoxygenate biofuels, so-called e-fuels are thermodynamic and hence economic nonsense, so we’d better hope we don’t need them.

I spent more than a decade working on chemical and biochemical biofuels schemes, so I know a lot about what has been tried, what worked, what didn’t, and why.  And while some of that knowledge is subject to durable client NDAs, some of it is just public knowledge within the biofuels industry that needs to be spread more broadly.

Where Biofuels are Needed

All land transport is going electric, with certainty.  The very edge cases- remote and rural transport for instance, running trucks over ice roads into northern Canada for instance, won’t go electric- but amount to ¾ of f*ck all in terms of GHG emissions anyway.  And they’re sure as hell not going to be served by hydrogen, either.

What’s left, then?  What actually needs, rather than merely wants, a liquid chemical fuel?

Only really a few things:

1)      Transoceanic aviation.  Batteries won’t be high enough in energy density for decades, barring a major unforeseen breakthrough.  And hydrogen isn’t a feasible alternative for many reasons.

2)      Transoceanic shipping.  Ships don’t need higher energy density batteries, but for a ship to be feasibly recharged only once every month after a crossing of the Pacific, batteries will need to be greatly cheaper than they’re likely to get in the next decade or two, again barring major unforeseen breakthroughs.  Hydrogen isn’t an alternative, and the easiest so-called e-fuel, ammonia, is a toxic corrosive nightmare that will have a body count.

3)      Dunkeflaute and emergency storage.  100% decarbonization using electricity is economically infeasible unless we use stored fuels to satisfy 5-10% of demand.  Season to season storage of electricity, either in batteries or in chemical fuels like hydrogen made from electricity, is an economic myth.  So our choices for seasonal fuel energy storage are either fossils, or biofuels.  While my bet is on the former, the latter, in the form of biogas methane, could become an economic contender if we were worried about the last few percent of decarbonization

4)      A few applications where fire, rather than just heat, is needed in industrial processes.  While electric heating can do nearly everything, there are still a few applications where a carbonaceous reducing agent and/or a hot flue gas are required, rather than just heat.  And those applications may be best served by burning biomass or fuels derived from biomass.

The Myth of Insufficient Biomass

The myth of insufficient biomass arose when hyperbolists and interested parties were seriously talking about replacing land transport fuels with biofuels.  That was a nonsense concept that could easily be disproven by a Google search and a simple mass balance.

The myth is also exacerbated by the assumption that biofuels must be made from food biomass, or must not be made from food biomass.  Both assumptions are wrong.

Currently, food-derived biomass in the form of corn, sugarcane, wheat, food oils etc. is converted into molecules like ethanol and biodiesel (fatty acid methyl esters) for use in land based engines.  Those fuels can be redeployed for the applications that actually need rather than merely want them.

There is also a myth related to the economic impossibility of cellulosic biofuels.  In past, people were trying to make biofuels from non-food cellulose- woody materials, agricultural leftovers like corn stover or sugarcane bagasse, or purpose grown cellulose crops like switchgrass (miscanthus), in the hope that these fuels could compete, bare knuckles, with gasoline and diesel made from $150 barrels of petroleum.  Of course this turned out to be economically impossible.  But in a decarbonized future, we’ll need fuels for shipping and aviation that are not derived from fossils.  And since the alternative will be to not ship long distances or to not fly, the costs per joule or litre of delivered fuel energy can be considerably higher than those of fossils and still make economic sense- to some users.

Whether or not they make sense in terms of dollars spent per tonne of CO2e emissions averted, is entirely another matter.

There certainly is no shortage of cellulosic biomass.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-martin-195763b_2016-billion-ton-report-activity-6825852496083337216-v_F-

 But to be clear, agriculture today is optimized around generating concentrated food calories, not biomass.  Accordingly, biofuels will use food biomass because this will produce cheaper fuels of the required quality.  Food will be used as a fuel, unless we regulate or tax food derived biofuels out of the fuel system.  However, in my view, we need to be much less precious about food, and more honest about what causes high food prices at the grocery store.  When we do that, we’ll be less concerned about farmers having alternative markets for their crops, and more interested in rooting out the parasites who eat 9 out of every 10 dollars that we spend on commodity foodstuffs like corn meal at the grocery store.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/corn-farming-food-prices-amateur-study-cost-value-paul-martin-dmzbc

Let’s look in turn at each application and consider the various approaches.  We’ll do this in only the most perfunctory way however, as I leave the real meat and potatoes of this analysis for my paying clients- feel free to contact Spitfire Research to inquire.

Aviation

Jet aircraft are durable assets with a huge associated infrastructure and regulatory cost component.  Accordingly, the only economically and practically feasible option for aircraft is to replace fossil jet fuel with the same molecules, except made from biomass.

The cheapest way to do that is via the hydrotreating of vegetable and animal fats (trigylcerides).  These molecules are already nearly the same length as those required for jet fuel, but they do need their oxygen-containing acid groups and their carbon-carbon double bonds to be reacted with hydrogen to remove them.  The necessary hydrogen can be produced by reforming byproducts from the hydrotreating process, or by the electrolysis of water if you can afford that.  These fuels are referred to as hydrotreated vegetable oils (HVO) or hydrotreated esters and fatty acids (HEFA).  The end result is a blendstock that, combined with aromatics produced from biomass by other processes, would make a perfectly acceptable jet fuel of pure biological origin.  The only fossil GHG emissions associated with such fuels would, in the ideal case, be those associated with upstream agricultural production.

Sadly, the maximum amount of food fats that we can realistically produce, is too low to satisfy even aviation demand.  And if we further restrict supply by requiring that only “used” or “waste” non-comestible oil products be used for fuel production, we’ll come up very short.

While some have proposed using the Fischer Tropsch process to make jet fuel, either from syngas produced by gasifying biomass or biogas methane or, stupidest of all, by reacting CO2 and electrolytic hydrogen, I have too much experience with F-T to give that any credence.  F-T stands for “fundamentally terrible”, and another even more accurate word starting with f.  You can’t fix this process- it is fundamentally unsuited to making just jet fuel, or even to making “synthetic petroleum” even if you could find a use for the entire suite of other products produced. Fischer Tropsch’s problems are many, but non-selectivity and inefficiency plus high capital intensity are the major ones, and they’re all deal killers here.   It can’t make money even when given a free feedstock and a free atmosphere to dump its effluent into, unless it is also built at a scale of tens of billions of dollars worth of capital.  The notion that F-T will ever make money when fed CO2 and expensive green hydrogen and constrained to sell just jet fuel, is just nonsense.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-martin-195763b_expensive-green-hydrogen-based-fuels-might-activity-7148351737572098048-f0ME/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop

So:  once we’ve tapped out the food oils, how will we satisfy the rest of jet fuel demand?

Sadly, pyrolysis won’t do it. The molecules you get from either biomass pyrolysis plus hydrotreating, or better still, integrated hydropyrolysis and hydrotreating (Shell/GTI’s IH^2 process), are just too short to be useful as a jet fuel.

There are but two remaining options.

One is making ethylene by removing water from ethanol.  We’ll have plenty of ethanol left over when we stop wasting it as a gasoline additive.

CH3CH2OH ==> H2O + H2C=CH2

This conversion is 1960s technology or even older, and is not difficult in terms of operating conditions, catalyst durability etc.  The yield is reportedly excellent, and few byproducts are produced.

Ethylene is a workhorse industrial chemical, used for all sorts of purposes.  However, whereas we could continue to use fossil ethane and naphtha to make ethylene to make polyethylene- as long as we don’t burn it at end of life- for fuels use, ethanol is really our only source.

Ethylene can then be made into short oligomers with precisely the range of lengths required for jet fuel, with again very few byproducts and excellent yield.  This again is at least 1980s technology, used to make linear alpha olefins for the production of surfactants and synthetic lubricants.  There’s nothing magical here, just routine chemical engineering.

The end result will, of course, be much more expensive than fossil jet fuel- but it is very far from impossible.  LanzaJet is doing this already in a facility built for them by my former employer.

Sadly, once you add cellulosic ethanol production’s extra cost to this, the resulting jet fuel is likely unaffordable. So if we look at the ethanol to jet pathway, we’re still definitely talking about a food-to-fuel pathway, just like with HEFA/HVO.

The other “alcohol to jet” conversion pathway can start with non-food cellulosic biomass- but it’s not without its problems. This pathway is to make methanol, which will be discussed in relation to shipping, and convert it to olefins, which themselves can be short oligomerized to jet fuel range molecules.  About 30% of world methanol production is already converted to olefins, so that technology is already commercially deployed at scale.  But that’s a lot of steps:  biomass to syngas, syngas to methanol, methanol to olefins and olefins to jet fuel…the economic viability of this pathway is very much in dispute.

Because the cost of a typical airline ticket is currently only about 20% fuel cost, aviation has a lot of potential to absorb higher fuel costs should we, as a worldwide society, decide to force it to decarbonize.  But the notion that it will voluntarily transition to fuels which cost a significant integer multiple of the cost of the fuels they’re using today, just to avoid GHG emissions, is idiotic.  Aviation will decarbonize only to the extent that we force it to with durable carbon pricing and emission bans.

Transoceanic Shipping

Ships are energetic garbage dumps.  While they do need liquid fuels for fuel logistics reasons, and can’t use hydrogen due to its ineffectiveness (its low energy density per unit volume, making it impractical for bunkering), the operating cost per tonne-mile of freight is today around 40% fuel cost, even using the cheapest fossils they can buy.

There are really only two economic contenders for shipping that merit consideration:  methanol, and liquefied biogas methane (bioLNG).

While ships could burn ethanol, my bet is that ethanol stocks will go into either ethylene production for plastics or into ethylene to jet fuel as noted above. Aviation can out-bid shipping for fuel in a fuel supply-constrained future.

While I see biogas methane production as very important, biogas is already useful as a fuel without further processing. Separating out the CO2, liquefying the methane (wasting about 8% of the energy in the methane in the process) and then feeding it to ships, offers the advantage of being able to re-fuel the small fraction of ships already converted to run on fossil LNG. Sadly, methane is a poor engine fuel, particularly in low pressure ships engines. The problem is methane slip through the engine, leading to significant GHG emissions. While engines can be modified to reduce methane slip, it’s not an easily solved problem- and can easily negate any GHG emission benefit from using biomethane versus burning fossil residuum-derived fuels.

Methanol is the cheapest liquid biofuel that can be made from cellulosic biomass.  Aviation will outcompete shipping for any HEFA/HVO fat derived fuels, which, like ethanol, will be supply constrained as already discussed.

Those pushing ammonia as a shipping fuel, are doing so in violation of the first principle of safety in design.  While ammonia would be the cheapest even marginally effective fuel per joule that you could make from electricity, it is a toxic and corrosive gas utterly unsuitable for use as a marine fuel.  Those pushing this concept will have a body count to contend with.  And I say that as an experienced chemical engineer, who has designed systems for handling chemicals vastly more hazardous than ammonia.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ammonia-ship-fuels-more-like-fuel-fools-paul-martin-jb7nc

It is also unclear if ammonia’s lower theoretical cost per joule of fuel energy, would actually end up being cheaper once its significant hazards are even approximately accounted for.

Methanol is made from synthesis gas, i.e. mixtures of carbon monoxide (CO) and hydrogen.  Syngas can be made by gasifying biomass or by reforming biogas methane.  While it can also be made by running the water-gas shift reaction in the unconventional direction by reacting CO2 with H2 to produce water and CO, this is unnecessary in methanol synthesis because all methanol catalysts are also water-gas shift catalysts.  However, green hydrogen will not be cheap enough to make this feasible in the foreseeable future, for reasons discussed at length in my other articles:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/scaling-lesson-2-water-electrolysis-paul-martin

The major problems for e-methanol are as follows:

–          the need for purely biogenic CO2 where green hydrogen is also available cheaply enough to make methanol synthesis make sense.  This is a geographically rare condition

–          expensive green hydrogen is wasted making CO and water

–          the water is co-produced with the product, requiring energy-intensive distillation to separate them

It is clear to me, based on my analysis, that methanol should be possible to produce from gasified biomass or biogas methane at lower costs than we will ever see for e-methanol.  Conditions which would shift the underlying economics without relying on subsidy unsustainable at scale seem extremely unlikely.

Methanol can also be used to make olefins as noted in the section under Aviation- but importantly, 1980s methanol to gasoline technology can also be used to make the aromatics fraction required in commercial jet fuels. Byproduct naphtha from other biofuels processes can also be cyclized and dehydrogenated to make aromatics, just as we “plat-form” petroleum naphtha today to make them. They won’t be cheap, but if you start with biomass, they will be biogenic.

While biogas methane is itself already a useful, transportable fuel without further modification, cellulosic biomass must be collected and transported to plants for conversion.  And its distribution in space, water content, low energy density per unit mass and volume, and intermittent production in time (harvests in many places are only once per year) make it a potentially very troublesome feedstock.  While the maximum feasible transport distance for cellulosic biomass will increase as the rest of transport becomes cleaner and electrified, those who are betting on e-methanol are in fact betting that it will be cheaper to move biologically generated CO2 and electrolytic hydrogen to large, centralized methanol plants than it will be to make methanol in more numerous but smaller and hence less economic plants from cellulosic biomass.  In my view, green hydrogen’s cost both as a feedstock and in terms of distribution infrastructure that doesn’t exist and is unlikely to ever be built, make the troubles of moving around cellulosic biomass seem worth the considerable bother.

Note that syngas can be made from pyrolysis products, too.  I prefer this option when possible, because it would allow us to make transport carbon-negative by returning biochar to the fields and forests from whence it came- and along with it, all the inorganics that came from those soils in the biomass that was harvested there. To be clear, this will drop the yield of biofuel and will cost more money. Carbon credits for the biochar will need to be quite high to justify doing this.

Dunkelflaute Storage

Emergency energy storage systems need to meet the following requirements:

1)      They must be reliable, above all else

2)      They must have a stable fuel that can be stored without difficulty

3)      They must have low capital cost, because they must distribute their capex over comparatively few kWh

Energy efficiency and fuel cost, therefore, matter less than they do in bulk energy generation or fuels uses like transport.

The ideal solution therefore is something which can re-use infrastructure which already exists and hence only needs to be maintained.

Accordingly, to me, the obvious solution for providing the small amounts of electricity to keep essentials running during “kalt dunkelflaute” conditions (when the wind isn’t blowing, and the solar panels are covered in snow for instance) is to re-use the existing fossil gas storage and transport/distribution infrastructure.

In Canada, depleted gas reservoirs are used as gas storage.  Gas produced throughout the year is stored in these reservoirs to satisfy peak heating and power demand in the winter months. Unlike with hydrogen, new bespoke salt caverns are not required.

In my view, the likely optimal solution to dunkelflaute energy storage is to simply store and burn fossil gas.  We can gradually transition from fossil gas to storing a year’s worth of biogas methane, made by the anaerobic digestion of food waste, manure, and other wet organic waste streams. If we really become concerned about the last few percent of our fossil GHG emissions to bear that cost, that is.  Anaerobic digestion will be required to dispose properly of wet biomass such as food and yard waste, human and animal manure etc., simply to reduce methane emissions to the atmosphere.  It seems obvious that we’ll want to maximize biogas generation therefore as a source of chemical heat energy and energy storage.

It also makes sense to me that these emergency storage and production systems, be publicly rather than privately owned.  Public institutions and governments have the lowest possible borrowing cost, which gives them a tremendous advantage relative to private entities in providing capital for essential but rarely used assets.

Storing excess hydrogen made in summer for use as a fuel in winter is simply uneconomic.  It is technically feasible, but the intermittent use of capital kills the idea by burdening every kg of hydrogen, and hence every kWh of electricity, with the double whammy of costs due to poor efficiency and poor, intermittent capital utilization.  There’s no way to make this idea look pretty in economic terms.

Agricultural Emissions

Critics of biofuels, other than those whose concerns are misplaced worry about the impact of food prices on the poor etc., generally are concerned about the emissions of intensive agriculture.  And those concerns are very well founded.  Agriculture uses fossil fuels, including fossil derived hydrogen to make ammonia from which all nitrogen derived fertilizers are produced.  Nitrogen fertilizer use results in nitrous oxide (N2O) being generated by soil organisms and released as a powerful GHG to the atmosphere.  Methane from agricultural practices makes global warming worse.  And then on top of the GHG emissions, we have the very real worries that people in developing countries will want to hew down their forests and plant crops, just as Europeans did all over Europe and later in North America.

However, there are a few truths about agriculture that make it clear to me that we’re going to use biofuels, despite these concerns- and that doing so won’t be an environmental disaster:

–          Agricultural emissions need to be mitigated anyway, because we still need to eat

–          We all would do well to eat less meat and animal products, for health and also to reduce agricultural emissions.  If we do so, we’ll leave more agricultural production potential that can, without increasing the amount of tilled land, make increased biofuels production more feasible.  And even today, biofuels production can be and is paired with animal agriculture:  distiller’s grains plus solubles from ethanol production is already used as a high protein feed supplement for cattle

–          Much of the attributed emissions associated with today’s biofuels production arise from the use of blend mandates rather than carbon taxes or emission bans as the implementation and funding mechanism.  Ethanol producers burn natural gas therefore, rather than corn stover, to raise steam to run their stills and dehydrators.  Good GHG emission reduction policy will also result in reduced biofuels-associated emissions

Biomass For Materials

I think there are many biomass materials- wood and engineered wood materials, biomass fibre composites, and a handful of bio-derived polymers- that make sense already.  However it’s crystal clear to me that we won’t be making -CH2- from C6 H10 O5 (the generic atomic ratio formula for biomass) when there’s -CH2- in the form of petroleum lying around in the subsurface that we know about.  And if we use that petroleum only for chemicals and materials that we don’t burn at their end of life, we can reserve biomass for those applications where CO2 will ultimately end up back in the atmosphere- for plants to recycle to useful carbohydrates for us.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/refinery-future-thought-experiment-paul-martin-4pfoc

Summary and Conclusions

I’m not worried about biofuels availability or environmental impact.  That said, I think it’s crazy for us to even worry about aviation and shipping right now.  There are far cheaper, quicker gains to be had by cleaning up electrical production, and by electrifying land transport and low temperature heating.

Biofuels options are all expensive per tonne of CO2e emissions averted, even in the best case.  And because we haven’t decarbonized agriculture yet for its most important purpose- feeding ourselves- stoking emissive current agricultural production with yet more demand to decarbonize aviation and shipping would be foolishly premature.

Like replacing black, fossil hydrogen with green hydrogen, biofuels for shipping, aviation and dunkelflaute storage, are something we should be thinking about for the future.  Research and development?  Certainly.  Planning?  Strategy?  Sure.  But public subsidy and market building?  To me, that’s premature.  Because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has a time value, and because public resources are always limited, we should focus on the easy, fast GHG tonnage savings first, and focus on the hard stuff later when those major gains have already been made.

Disclaimer: this article has been written by a human, and humans are known to make mistakes from time to time.  Show me where I’ve gone wrong, with good references, and I’ll be happy to correct my work.

If I’ve taken a dump on your pet idea however, or you wish to use this topic to push your pet technology, your ideological concerns, your veganism, fallacious notions about “regenerative agriculture”, or enviro-religionism, then please reach out to my employer, Spitfire Research, who will be very happy to tell you to  piss off and write your own article.

Blue Hydrogen Reconsidered?

TL&DR Summary:  blue hydrogen will be cheaper than green hydrogen for the foreseeable future.  But the risk remains that the product will be much cheaper if we ignore the fact that it’s not blue, but rather blackish-blue and bruise coloured due to methane and uncaptured CO2 emissions.  But that can also be said about green hydrogen, which can only be considered green once we’ve eliminated fossil burning in the areas where it is being produced.

Today a connection asked me if I agreed with Michael Liebreich that blue hydrogen is the “only answer”.

I’ve read enough of Michael’s work, and watched enough of his presentations, to know that he’s never said anything of the sort.

Michael and I have gone back and forth over these topics for many years.  And today it’s difficult to fit more than a couple sheets of paper between our opinions in relation to hydrogen and its role in decarbonization.

I think it’s fair to say that both of us agree- as his famous “hydrogen ladder” shows, that the only meaningful decarbonization uses of hydrogen are pretty much applications where hydrogen is already used- as a chemical.  The “new” uses of hydrogen that make sense in a decarbonized future, are in a sense, really existing uses of hydrogen, simply expanded.  One example is replacing some of the carbon monoxide currently used in direct iron reduction, with hydrogen and electricity, to produce lower GHG iron for steelmaking- what people have been calling “green steel”.  Another is dealing with the oxygen in biomass, running the “hydrogenolysis” reactions to effectively burn the oxygen out of the biomass to leave behind a stable fuel that can be used in existing engines.

We agree that hydrogen won’t be wasted in heating, transport, or as an international energy export vector.  That “hydrogen economy” stuff is just hyperbole, being put forward by interested parties and their useful idiot hangers-on.

While Michael gives credence to the use of hydrogen for applications like “long duration storage”, I don’t.  I think he’s just throwing the hydrogen fanatics a bone, frankly, because the idea of making excess hydrogen in summer to burn in winter, cannot ever make economic sense.

But what to do about the GHG emissions of existing hydrogen production?

That’s another thing that Michael and I agree on.  And while I’ve long said that our focus must be on replacing black hydrogen (fossil derived hydrogen- 99% of world current H2 production- is derived from fossils with no attempt at carbon capture and hence is BLACK, not gray or brown) with green hydrogen, Michael has been suggesting that blue hydrogen would be the better choice.

The reasons for that are pretty straightforward:  blue hydrogen is going to be cheaper than green, for the foreseeable future.  And on that, we agree.

The problem I have with blue hydrogen is that it’s very likely to be called “blue”, when it’s really blackish blue and bruise coloured. And Michael acknowledges that this is true, too.  He’s just unabashedly more optimistic about how regulated the industry can be.  He hopes that we can demand that any blue hydrogen project be done under stringent regulatory control that ensures that not only is the right technology selected to allow high percentage CO2 capture, but also the upstream methane emissions will be properly measured and abated.

And I have no hope of that at all.

Why is that?

Because of Shell Quest.

Shell Quest- A Story of Public Cost and Partial Carbon Capture

Shell Quest, which I talk about quite a bit in my piece about blue hydrogen:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/blackish-blue-bruise-coloured-hydrogen-spitfire-research-inc

…makes quite blackish blue, bruise coloured hydrogen.  But I LOVE that project!  Why is that?  Because it was publicly funded, and hence the data about the project is, largely, public.  Or at least it was until 2023.  No 2024 report has come out on the Government of Alberta website, and since this is near the end of 2025, it would not surprise me if 2023’s data is the last we ever get.

What Quest proves, beyond a shadow of a doubt, is that “blue” hydrogen, done at considerable scale (1 million tonnes of CO2 captured and sequestered per year), by very competent people (Shell and Fluor, both of which have some of the world’s best chemical engineers working for them), under nearly ideal conditions, still costs a fortune.

Despite the fact that Quest only goes after the CO2 in the syngas stream of the steam methane reformer (SMR), which has to be removed to make useful pure hydrogen anyway- which amounts to only ~55% of the CO2 emissions from hydrogen production in an SMR.

Despite the fact that its target was to capture only 80% of that CO2, and it eventually had to be adjusted down to 78% to avoid burner stability problems in the firebox of the SMR unit.

Despite the fact that heat and electricity to run the CCS equipment is produced by burning fossil gas, with no CCS attempted.

Despite the fact that the other ~ 45% of the CO2, which comes out of the SMR’s firebox flue, is just vented, just like it was before.

Despite the fact that there’s a perfect hole in the ground- a deep saline aquifer- only ~ 60 km away from the plant, so only a short CO2 pipeline needed to be built.

Despite all these advantages, it STILL cost, in 2023, $145/tonne of CO2 captured and sequestered.  Those are Canadian dollars however, so that’s a paltry $106 USD/tonne.

Truly Blue Hydrogen is Hard and Expensive

At first blush, you might think: “well, that’s not so bad”.

Typical SMR hydrogen has direct CO2 emissions of around 10 kg CO2 per kg H2 produced.  Multiply that out by $106 USD/tonne of CO2 emissions, and you might conclude that blue hydrogen could be produced for an extra $1.06 USD per kg, driving up black hydrogen cost from $1 to $1.50/kg wholesale to perhaps $2.50/kg at most.  And since green hydrogen will never get that cheap (see my article about electrolysis to understand why I conclude that):

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/scaling-lesson-2-water-electrolysis-paul-martin

…you might conclude that blue hydrogen will be cheaper than green will ever be.

And you’d be right.

But you’d also be wrong.

To do truly “blue” hydrogen, you need to do things differently than they did at Quest.  And by “different”, I mean “things that are much more costly”.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/part-2-ghost-blue-hydrogens-future-spitfire-research-inc

As my piece explains, you need to either run electric SMR or an autothermal reformer (ATR). An electric SMR, with ~ 30% of the energy in the hydrogen, coming from electricity instead of fire.  This energy is required at high temperature, but electric heating can definitely do that- it’s challenging, and costly, and must be run continuously as must all truly high temperature equipment- but it’s far from impossible.   But while that would require a lot less electricity than electrolyzing water (about 1/3 as much), it would still leave you with the cost, and geological and logistical challenges of CCS.

Or, you can do autothermal reforming, so that the “fire” that you need to supply the endothermic heat of reforming reactions, is produced by partial combustion inside the reactor instead of in a firebox, by feeding oxygen in with the steam and methane before passing the gas over a reforming catalyst.  We know how to do that- it’s fully TRL9 commercial technology and has been for decades.  But ATR is less efficient than SMR, and would still require clean electricity to make oxygen and to run the CCS equipment.

And you would still end up with the problem of gas purification.  Because pure hydrogen is required, and by “pure” I mean CO+CO2 less than 10 ppm total if you want to feed a fuelcell without killing it, so you will end up with streams of “mostly hydrogen” which contain those unwanted gases.  In a conventional SMR, they are fed to the firebox where fire sorts them out.  But in an electric SMR or an ATR, you must either burn those streams and emit the CO2, or do costly post-combustion CCS on them. 

Neither is an attractive option.

Undeterred, Shell and its partner ATCO, are planning a project called Polaris, which will attempt to recover another 650,000 tonnes/yr of CO2 to dump into the proposed Atlas Carbon Storage Hub, which will use the Basal Cambrian Sands as the CO2 repository.  This is the same deep saline aquifer that has been used by Quest to store around 10 million tonnes of CO2 so far since 2015.  Polaris apparently is going after post-combustion CO2 from the Scotford upgrader, probably including the firebox flue of the SMR.  Whereas the CO2 in the syngas at Quest is ~3.8 bar partial pressure, the firebox flue effluent will be somewhere between 8 and 15% CO2 and at atmospheric pressure.  And basic physics tells us that capturing CO2 from a 0.08 to 0.15 bar partial pressure stream, will cost a LOT more per tonne of CO2 than capturing it from a 3.8 bar CO2 stream.  Carbon capture costs from this project have not been announced, but rest assured- we Canadians will be paying whatever it costs.  Sadly, we won’t likely get the cost data from this project, either.

Methane Emissions

But the elephant in the room is methane emissions.  The gas industry and gas users alike, simply pretend that it’s not a problem.

In Canada, you can’t get good data on methane emissions per unit of gas delivered.  I’ve looked.  Thoroughly.  The data that there is, was provided by the industry with no independent verification and is totally incredible, i.e. not believable.

There’s nothing magical about gas in Alberta, either.  It’s just as likely to be vented or to leak as gas produced anywhere else in the world.  There are no magical regulations in Canada that make this unaffordable or illegal, either.  And regulatory capture in Canada by the fossil fuel industry is no less of a problem than it is in many other places in the world- though we fortunately have no equivalent to the utterly indecent and corrupt Texas Railroad Commission.

A little methane goes a long way.  With a global warming potential 33x that of CO2 on the 100 year timeline, and 84x that of CO2 on the 20 year timeline, it’s a powerful greenhouse gas.  And if you don’t ignore it, and especially if you see hydrogen as a transitional energy resource (rather than as a permanent chemical that we will always need), you really should be using the 20 year GWP figure.

Hydrogen produced by SMR without carbon capture has CO2 emission intensity of about 10 kg CO2 per kg H2.  Add in methane emissions at the worldwide average estimate of 1.5% of delivered gas, and that jumps to 14 kg CO2e per kg H2.  And CCS, and ATR, and even electric SMR if it is operated on grid electricity,  make this worse, because these approaches sap the energy efficiency of the process, wasting more gas, and hence dragging along more methane emissions.  Howarth and Jacobson’s paper, linked in my article about bruise coloured hydrogen, made this argument more eloquently than I can manage.

Michael Liebreich’s point is that we, as the public, can and in fact should demand that blue hydrogen be produced properly, with high CO2 capture and low upstream emissions.  And while we agree that we should do this, there is every incentive for the gas industry to simply ignore the methane emissions, and for government to blissfully pretend that they’re not real too.

In conclusion, we know that it will take very vigorous regulation to ensure that any “blue” hydrogen produced, will be truly blue, rather than the blackish blue, bruise coloured shit the industry will inevitably try to get away with producing and passing off as if it were “blue”.  And frankly, aside from being confident that it will cost more than $3 USD/kg, we really don’t know for sure what it will cost.  That depends on many things, most notably the secure supply of ultra-low methane leakage source gas.

Green Hydrogen is No Saint, Either

But green hydrogen isn’t necessarily green, either.  It can vary from bright green to blacker than black, depending on how it is made, too.

This excellent paper by de Kleijne et al, explains that green hydrogen’s carbon intensity varies greatly with the conditions under which it is made- even when it is to be used for inarguably good applications such as replacing black hydrogen in ammonia production for use as a fertilizer.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-green-hydrogen-lifecycle-basis-paul-martin-pbhyc

To be truly green, hydrogen must be produced in “islanded” facilities fed only low GHG electricity (wind, solar, nuclear, cold water hydro etc.), with any excess electricity fed to the grid to offset fossil generation.  The second a green hydrogen project takes grid electricity as an input, a shell game is underway, by which the operator pretends that they are feeding the project only green electricity, whereas in reality, the electricity the project is being fed, has a carbon intensity identical to that of the grid from which it is drawing.  Even under these ideal conditions, the resulting hydrogen has a rather high GHG emission potential, of 2.9 kg CO2e/kg H2 produced, with a range between 0.9 and 4.3. 

While this is of course better than the ~ 14 kg CO2e/kg of black H2 calculated using 1.5% methane leakage on the 20 year time horizon, only under the very best conditions would this green hydrogen meet the Hydrogen Science Coalition’s criterion for truly “clean” hydrogen- 1 kg CO2e/kg H2- which is necessary for hydrogen to be produced under conditions suitable for a “net zero by 2050” type decarbonization scenario.

To mitigate this problem, regulators have attempted to put controls on what conditions are considered acceptable for green hydrogen production subsidies.  These include the so-called three pillars:

Additionality:  hydrogen must be produced only from new renewable sources that would not otherwise be built.  This is obviously a large and speculative test, and is really an ideological nonsense on any grid which still burns fossils for more than a trivial fraction of its power generation

Proximity:  power used must be produced within a real wire’s reach of where it is consumed.  Projects which pretend to consume Labrador hydropower in Nova Scotia, despite no excess grid capacity interconnecting the two locations, would be considered a fraud, for instance, because it really would be a fraud, regardless what power purchase agreements might say

Temporal Matching:  instead of taking a basket of kWh over a year, under a power purchase agreement, and claiming that the plant consumed only green electricity despite being grid connected, the power used by the electrolyzer must be green during every hour of its operation.  Otherwise, there would be no incentive to shut down the electrolyzer when the grid is dirty

These conditions are restrictive, burdensome from a regulatory perspective, and hence are the subject of vigorous lobbying to dilute them.  Green hydrogen producers are in business just like everybody else, and know that they need to make cheap hydrogen to have a hope of having an economic value proposition.  If the result is that their green hydrogen becomes olive drab or even an intense green barely distinguishable from black, then so be it- at least in the minds of some project developers.

Green hydrogen, just like blue hydrogen, can be made either well or poorly, with low or extremely high GHG emissions.  And regulatory controls are required to ensure that any green hydrogen produced, is meaningfully green.

The difference is that even under rather lax conditions, the resulting hydrogen, which is not particularly green or low in GHG emissions, will be expensive.

Even in the best locations in the world, where there is nobody within economic reach of an HVDC cable who needs electricity,  islanded wind+sun fed electrolysis plants are built to make ammonia for export, and built at giant scale- GW, not MW- will make very expensive ammonia.  And that ammonia will represent a very high cost per tonne of CO2 emissions averted.

“Turquoise” Hydrogen is No Salvation, Either.

Some have argued that the solution to “blue” hydrogen is to pyrolyze methane to make carbon and hydrogen.  I’ve already written about this on the basis of what portion of my considerable experience with clients, that I am at liberty to share publicly.  Rest assured, methane pyrolysis will never represent a significant fraction of world hydrogen production.  It can be, if done correctly, a good way to make valuable carbon products, with low GHG hydrogen as a valuable byproduct.  But every little thing, helps only a little.  And throwing away ½ of the energy and ¾ of the mass of the feedstock into low value applications like asphalt extenders, or worse still, burying it in reverse coal mining operations, makes no economic sense to me.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hydrogen-methane-pyrolysis-paul-martin-vacnc

There Are Better Things to Do

Michael and I agree that despite the fact that hydrogen production represents somewhere in the neighbourhood of 3-4% of world GHG emissions (calculation provided in my article here: https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hydrogen-from-renewable-electricity-our-future-paul-martin/ ) there are much more urgent and better things to worry about, than about whether we use blue or green hydrogen to replace black hydrogen.

Michael’s work shows that there are far lower cost options for reducing GHG emissions, which include cleaning up electricity supply, and electrifying land transport and low temperature heating.  And my own work for clients, only some of which I am not permitted to talk about publicly, confirms those conclusions.

Given that CO2 and other GHGs have a “time value” in the atmosphere, pursuing the fastest, lowest cost gains we can make, is the only decarbonization strategy that makes any sense.

And by that thinking, as sensible as the decarbonization of hydrogen production for chemical uses durable post decarbonization might be, they really should not be any kind of near term priority.  Just like the various carbon-negative technologies touted by many who have read the various IPCC reports, only some of these strategies make any technical or economic sense- and the ones that remain are really appropriate only for use AFTER we’ve tackled the “easy and cheap” to decarbonize sectors.

Disclaimer: this article was written by a human, and humans are known to make mistakes.  And while I’m sure Michael will correct any misperceptions about his positions that have made their way into my piece, I count on my readers to correct anything that I’ve gotten wrong, by providing good references which steer me in the right direction.

However, if what you don’t like is that I’ve taken a dump on your pet idea, you are directed to contact my employer, Spitfire Research Inc., who will promptly tell you to piss off and write your own article.

The Circular Economy is a Thermodynamic Myth

TL&DR Summary: all real systems have energy and matter inputs, and generate waste streams of both matter and “entropy” (i.e. the entropy of the universe always increases).  A “circular economy” is a thermodynamic impossibility.  We should instead talk about optimal recycle, where the environmental impacts of matter waste are balanced against energy input and its associated impacts.  As our energy system becomes cleaner, the optimal recycle will increase.

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So, why is a ~27 ton excavator parked in front of a cute little Toronto bungalow?

No, Arthur Dent isn’t lying in front of it in his bathrobe.  Rather, this perfectly liveable home, built likely just after WWII, is about to be demolished, to make way for what we affectionately know in the neighbourhood as a “McMansion”- a building built within an inch of every dimension permitted by local zoning, plus whatever extra they can get via a trip to the Committee of Adjustment, designed to maximize resale value by having as much floor area and indeed also as much interior volume as possible.  Aesthetics?  Function as a home?  Good sense from an urban planning perspective?  Nah.  Those are all second thoughts at best!

Demolition is dangerous work.  Taking a house apart piece by piece to permit recovery and re-use of those components worth salvaging used to be done by hand, by people with crowbars and sledge hammers.  Or, in rural areas, with a can of kerosene and a match… I have fond memories of going to the salvage yard, Teperman’s, outside Kitchener Ontario with my father, where he would buy planks sawn from old growth trees.  Planks salvaged from factories built in the 1800s that they had torn down- lumber that simply doesn’t exist in Ontario any more and never will again.

But labour costs too much now, and machines make this work much less hazardous.

What will inevitably happen is that an excavator operator will smash this house, often complete with contents left behind by the former owner, and sort the rubbish into piles using the “fine” control of the excavator “thumb”.  Wood will go in one pile, if space allows- masonry and brick in another, and whatever metal that can be salvaged- wire, pipe, aluminum eavestroughs etc., into yet another, much smaller pile.  It is rare for a worker to set foot outside the excavator the whole time.

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A day later- smashy smashy- pile of salvaged metal in the foreground

The wood might be recycled, after a fashion.  Wood waste in Toronto is sometimes taken to a facility where it is shredded, nails and all, and the wood shreddings are used for paper-making.

The brick, concrete and masonry are destined for landfill.  The Leslie Street spit which extends into Lake Ontario, consists of a lot of this kind of fill- in fact, much of the land south of Front Street in Toronto is “lake-fill”, not native soils.   Unlike the concrete from large buildings, which is often ground up for re-use, there’s too much diversity in materials in the masonry waste stream from house demolition to make it useful even as aggregate for making new concrete, or as road bed material.

All the roofing, drywall or lath and plaster, insulating materials- foam, mineral fibre or fibreglass etc., and a host of other material, will go to landfill.  And as long as the wood and other biodegradable materials have been sorted out adequately by the clever excavator operator, most of these materials will simply remain in landfill for millennia, with no ongoing environmental impact.  But of course, the sorting isn’t perfect, as people are in a hurry and equipment is expensive, and so the potential for that wood and paper construction material to very slowly degrade to methane and CO2 in the landfill is very real.

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A day after that: the house is gone, leaving only a pile of rubble to be compacted and transferred into roll-off boxes on their way to the landfill

Circular Economy- An Ideological Concept

Most of us just aren’t all that curious about what happens to our things at their end of life.  We toss them into a bin, or hire a contractor to do demolition, and don’t give it much thought after that.

But there are some people who have a different notion.  They’re selling us on a concept called the “circular economy”.  And that concept is often sold with a diagram like this:

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A popular cartoon of the “circular economy”. Definitely unfunny, and inaccurate.

Sadly, what the diagram is missing some important things.  Here’s a more accurate representation:

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My version of the cartoon- not accurate either. There is a recycle rate where impacts are optimally low. And I never claimed to be an illustrator, either!

I’m a scrounger and salvager by nature and nurture- and I’m also cheap. As a child I would accompany my father to the local industrial metal scrapyard where he would salvage electric motors and steel for his projects, and I came face to face with the realities of industrial recycling. So much waste! So much potential for re-use, squandered. I remember sharing my father’s disgust to see brand new electic motors, still in their cardboard boxes, that somebody had taken the extra effort to smash with a sledgehammer before throwing them into the scrap bin- the thinking being that if they didn’t have a use for them, they were damned if anyone else would gain the benefit! So there’s no need to preach to me that the notion of “circularity” should include the low energy processes of re-use and re-purposing. I live those principles, and wish the rest of our society were less driven by laziness and self importance and aesthetics. But then again, if they were, I’d find fewer treasures on the side of the road on garbage day, and that would deprive me of both cash and pleasure.

But when we’re talking about a product as heterogeneous as a house- at a certain point, the land occupied by a 1950s bungalow is worth more WITHOUT the bungalow on it, than it is with it- because it saves the future owner the cost of demolition and disposal. Things do change, and nobody who built a 1950s bungalow during the post-war boom, was thinking about anybody trying to live in it in 2025. The reality is, we do have to think about end of life demolition, and make smart decisions between recycling and disposal.

If we want to reduce how much matter in any system goes to waste, we’re really fighting a battle against the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics- the important law that says that for any expenditure of energy, the entropy of the universe must increase.  A house is an example of a modern product:  a complex mixture of numerous materials, each optimized to deliver the features and functions desired at as low a cost as is considered reasonable.  And over the ~ 70 years since that particular house was likely constructed, our methods and materials have changed, as the costs of labour and materials and the energy they embody has changed.  So it’s really a dog’s breakfast of materials- even moreso when for labour cost and safety reasons, you smash the whole thing into a heap with a giant excavator.

Take, as an example, the demolition waste from my own major home renovation project.  I added what amounted to a new house to our existing house, while we were still living in it.  At various points in the process, I had to demolish parts of the old house to tie it together with the addition.  I could have hired a bin and just chucked everything into it, but that would not only have been a waste of materials, it would have cost me a “tipping fee” for the weight of mixed waste that had to be hauled off to landfill.  So, to make myself feel better, being a bit of an enviro-masochist combined with hereditary frugality (cheapness, really…) I dutifully separated out all the wood from the plaster, drywall and other junk, cut it into firewood sized pieces, and stacked it in a giant pile in my backyard.  That wood waste fueled my workshop’s woodstove for the next couple of years, and I pulled seven gallon pails full of nails from the ashes.  We often joked that the guy who built our house in the 1920s, must have had shares in Stelco (the local steel mill which made most of the nails used in the province in the last century). We also re-used the original Don bricks from the side of the house, to re-brick the front of the extended house. Knocking those bricks down one by one with a deadblow mallet, and cleaning them – all 900- was a real pain in the ass at the time, but it the end result looks amazing and in hindsight it was a great decision. As was the decision to hire a bricklayer. The first 100 houses you brick, you don’t want to be your house- or visible from your house!

Of course, if the local laws permitted me to toss the debris over my neighbour’s fence and get away with it, I might have been sorely tempted to do so.  Hence, there is environmental value in a landfill tipping fee for any waste that might be generated.  (Aside:  we lack such a tipping fee for using the atmosphere as a giant “air-fill”, or public sewer, for the effluent from fossil fuel combustion, and hence we need a “tipping charge” in the form of carbon pricing to discourage the continued emission of fossil GHGs.  Otherwise, decarbonization is trying to fight economics, and decarbonization usually loses)

Recycling:  A Systems Overview

All real systems, including all “natural” (biological) systems, take a matter and energy input, use the energy to transform the matter in some way, generate a product or service, and generate both a matter waste stream and, in a sense, an “entropy” waste stream, generally in the form ultimately of heat.  Systems can be and often are, heavily coupled, with the waste stream from one process being the matter stream or even the matter and energy inputs to another system.

But the recycle in all real systems is never 100%.  Why is that?  The 2nd Law.  The 2nd Law establishes an energetic penalty for the perfect separation and recovery of matter from any real process.  That penalty can be small, moderate, large, or positively enormous, depending on the nature of the materials and process and what purities or levels of recovery are required.

So the greater the recovery or purity or both required, and the greater dilution of the valuable material in the source, the greater the energetic penalty associated with recovery.

Some systems are simple enough that we can calculate a minimum necessary reversible energy input required to separate, say, salt water from fresh water. Producing fresh water from seawater takes about 1.5 kWh per m3 of freshwater, assuming a reject stream which is about 50% greater in salinity than seawater. However, there are always irreversible, 2nd law losses associated with all real processes. In the case of reverse osmosis water purification, we can actually achieve that separation for about 3.5 kWh/m3, which is astoundingly good. What that also means is that no process we will ever invent, will reduce that 3.5 kWh/m3 to 1.5 or lower. No magical membrane will ever increase the energy efficiency RO by a factor of three, much less a factor of ten.

And since all energy generation and use and transformation comes with environmental, economic, social and political impacts, there’s no such thing as a free ride from recycling.  As we try to increase the recycle rate, the energetic penalty will often grow to a point where any increased recovery generates more impact from energy use than it saves in terms of impacts from disposal of the waste stream.

But hey, we’re humans- and humans have a demonstrated tendency to prefer large but invisible problems, to smaller but more visible ones…We can’t see GHG emissions, so we think they don’t matter!

If we care about the environment, truly, that’s a very human tendency that we need to fight- with our brains, by doing proper analysis.

Optimal Recycle

Since true “circularity” is basically ideological nonsense in the form of a meme, abhorred by the laws of thermodynamics, we need a better concept.

The replacement concept that I think we should reach for is “optimal recycle”.

The optimal recycling rate of anything, is the recycling rate that generates the lowest lifecycle impacts, taking into account the production of new material, the disposal of wastes, the value of the new use for the recycled material if that use is different (which it frequently is) than the original one, and importantly- the impact of the energy use and emissions therefrom.

Something should become fairly obvious fairly quickly, and that is, the optimal recycle rate- while it will NEVER be 100%, will certainly increase for most things as we reduce the impacts associated with energy production and use.  That is yet another advantage of pursuing a cleaner, decarbonized energy system.

The other thing that should become obvious is that it’s not easy to determine what the optimal recycle rate actually is.  To do so requires a lifecycle analysis, and such analyses must be done in accordance with a standardized methodology to avoid being taught to quack like a duck for whoever is paying for the study.

Down-Cycling Versus Recycling

An example of optimal recycle thinking is the way we already recycle copper.  Metals have the advantage that they’re just atoms- there’s nothing stopping us from collecting them and re-using them.  Copper mined by the Romans is still to be found in modern copper articles.  Old copper atoms aren’t damaged in any way by that recycling.

What does change, however, is purity.  And we don’t needlessly fight the entropic battle of returning all items to their original purity, because that would have a huge energetic and hence economic penalty associated with it.

So:  we don’t recycle old copper wire into new copper wire, because very small additions of other atoms into copper, reduce its electrical conductivity.

Instead, we recycle copper wire into other copper products, where small amounts of contaminants or alloying constituents don’t prevent the re-use, and may actually be necessary anyway.  An example is copper pipe and tubing.

And so with copper pipe and tubing:  we recycle it not into wire or pipe, but into brasses and bronzes- copper alloys which can tolerate even more contamination.

Only at the very bottom of this “down-cycling” purity chain, do we re-dissolve the products and purify them again by hydrometallurgical steps and “electrowinning”- the process of recovering and purifying copper by electrochemical recrystallization.  The result is very pure copper, suitable for making wire or anything else we may desire- but there are losses, and the energy requirement of that step is huge. And there are still wastes generated- lead, zinc, tin, nickel, phosphorous, aluminum, iron and other metals that end up in the copper waste stream, all have to come out- and a similar entropic battle has to be fought to recover them into useful forms, or else they have to be chemically stabilized to be disposed of as “tailings”.

There’s nothing fundamentally wrong about “down-cycling”.  In fact, it’s just good engineering and environmental practice.  It’s also commonsense- it’s what our ancestors did with nearly everything, because everything took so much human labour and effort to produce. When energy became inexpensive because we learned how to mine fossils and burn them, all sorts of consumption that our ancestors would have seen as abject idiocy and decadence, became learned “normal” behavior.

Plastics

Plastics represent an even greater challenge.  Unlike metals, plastics are molecules, and molecules can be damaged by heat and UV light and oxygen exposure.  This can change mechanical properties, colour, or generate toxic or otherwise noxious materials that can end up in the products made from this material.  Plastic molecules, being long chains, are also deadly difficult to separate from one another once they are intimately mixed.  Plastics also often contain additives- plasticizers, UV stabilizers, antioxidants, stiffeners and other fillers- which render recycling difficult. And small amounts of one polymer can render the properties of a “blend” with another, unsuitable for any purpose.

And then there are “composite materials”, made of crosslinked molecules and structural fillers.  Things like rubber tires and fibreglass boats.  These materials, being one big molecule, basically cannot be meaningfully recycled. While limited repurposing/re-use potential for rubber crumb from chipped rubber tires, for instance, is possible and sensible, ultimately the optimal recycle rate of composites is very near zero. That however does not mean that they are an environmental disaster if used appropriately- quite the opposite can in fact be true. Witness the enormous amount of fossil GHG and toxic emissions that can be offset by a set of wind turbine blades which, after 20 years of service, need to be landfilled because they have exceeded their safe fatigue life limitation.

While I have no objection to slicing them up into pieces that are re-usable for whatever function smart people can put them to, I certainly would NOT stop us from using wind turbine blades even if 100% of them had to be landfilled! That would be the sort of mindless, ideological, nirvana fallacy-based “circular economy” thinking that frankly boils my blood.

Pure thermoplastics recovered relatively pure and easily cleaned, can sometimes be mechanically recycled right back into their original uses- in a blend with fresh material.  PET plastic bottles, for instance, frequently contain some post-consumer recycled content, despite the need for purity due to its food grade use.  They can also be recycled into carpet fibre and other valuable products.  PET is therefore quite valuable as a plastic recycling feedstock.

Not so with the big dogs of the polymer industry, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP).  While pre-consumer recycling of all thermoplastics is common, with molding sprues and mis-molded parts being re-ground and mixed back into the feed, post-consumer recycling of PE and PP generally produces quite low value products, again often blended with fresh plastic material.  Examples include pallets and other dense packaging materials, plastic decking, railroad sleepers and the like.  Only a small fraction of PE and PP collected for recycling, end up in valuable products.

And no, converting plastics to energy (i.e. incineration or “air-filling”), either directly or indirectly via making syngas or liquid fuels from them, isn’t “recycling”, it’s converting a fossil fuel into a smaller quantity of another fossil fuel.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/waste-energy-fuels-great-greenwashing-machine-paul-martin

Chemical recycling of some plastics is possible, but needs to be viewed with every bit as much a jaundiced eye as waste to energy or fuels schemes.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chemical-recycling-plastics-alchemy-waste-management-paul-martin-byg1c

The key with plastics is that their ultimate end of life options are either incineration or landfilling.  And while the former seems to be popular in places that are very precious about their land use, the latter actually generates the lowest end of life environmental impact.  Landfilling baled, separated waste plastics that are too dirty and mixed to be mechanically recycled, is with certainty the lowest cost post-consumer fossil CO2 sequestration strategy imaginable.  All we need to do is not burn it.  In landfill, protected from oxygen and sunlight, plastics will remain essentially unchanged for millennia. They don’t generate leachate or CO2 or methane- or “microplastics”, if you happen to be scared of that particular bogeyman.  Perhaps future generations will find these materials useful- but in the meantime, they’re doing no harm in landfill.

Design for Re-Use and Right of Repair

It seems logical, at first blush at least, to regulate how articles are designed and made, to extend their useful life and to make their handling at end of life easier.

There are plenty of examples we can find in our everyday lives, of products that seem to be designed with pre-programmed obsolescence, or which are made using such absurd assembly processes that repair is next to impossible.  Cellphones, for instance, used to have removable batteries so they could be swapped out with charged ones, or replaced when they go bad.  And there are examples where manufacturers take measures to prevent the repair of their goods, justified largely by trumped-up concerns about liability.

What isn’t being said, however, is why certain design decisions and material choices are made in the 1st place.

The main reason that cellphones lost their removable/replaceable batteries, was to make them thinner, and also more water resistant by means of water-tight, glued construction.  This frustrates repair, but also means fewer people with their phone in a bag of rice in the hope to recover its function after an accidental dip in the water.

I certainly would like to know that the products I buy have parts available so I can repair them, and use methods of assembly that allow repair to at least be possible.  Then again, I’m an engineer who grew up taking things apart and putting them back together again to see how they work, and repair – especially of goods salvaged from other people who lacked the skill or knowledge or time to do it themselves- became a matter of personal pride.  But rather like with demolition, the cost of skilled repair labour has become stratospheric, rendering repair rather than disposal/recycling frequently an economically fraught decision.  While YouTube has taken some of the fun out of diving into a dead product with a screwdriver and prayers or oaths, knowing that the patient is already dead and hence can’t really be harmed anyway- online retailers make access to repair parts that were formerly next to impossible to obtain, now just a roll of the dice as to whether or not the advertised compatibility with your model of thing is actually true.  Self-repair of many things is definitely still a viable option. But you have to want to do it…the motivation, skill and free time to do that, run in short supply in our society.

The thing that people seem to be missing, though, is just how much engineers pride themselves in using the optimal material and method for the job- and how little control they have over the objectives of their clients or employers.  And all design decisions are an optimization exercise, weighing cost of materials, cost of transformation labour and energy, and how important the various design specs are relative to one another- weight, safety, energy consumption etc.  We as a society definitely have a right to weigh into that already complex decision making matrix with our own values related to energy use, waste disposal and other environmental impacts- but we’ll need to tread carefully or we are likely to make things worse rather than better.

Tying engineers’ hands with more regulatory controls which limit their range of choices, might in fact make the world a better place.  But it would likely do so by making goods more expensive, so that we just buy less stuff.  It likely wouldn’t fix the learned propensity of people to throw things away when they don’t work any more.  That’s been learned now for many generations.

One regulatory control I’m a bit in love with is deposit-return. It works brilliantly with lead-acid batteries, ensuring that around 99% of them end up returned for proper recycling, rather than adding lead contamination to landfill leachate. Win-win. But if we apply deposit-return to everything we make, expect costs to skyrocket, and anticipate more than a little environmental impact from all the very sub-optimal transport required to make that happen. Like all regulatory controls, it needs to be applied with a brain rather than ideologically.

Conclusions

If you’ve made it this far, you likely care at least as much about these issues, and about getting them right, as I do.  And you’ll hopefully understand that reality is much more complex and less clear than a simple meme- slogan like “circular economy”.  Perhaps you’ll also be just a little better prepared to discuss these issues in your particular industry.

Disclaimer: this article has been written by a human, and humans are prone to mistakes.  If I’ve gotten something wrong, and you can show me how with good references, I will correct my work with gratitude.

If, however, you don’t like what I’ve written because  I’ve taken a dump on your pet idea, by all means contact my employer, Spitfire Research, who will be very happy to tell you to piss off and write your own article.

ER-6 Battery Pack Replacement

I converted a 1975 Triumph Spitfire to a fully electric vehicle in 2014.  The project is described here, including the specifications of the motor, inverter and other components.  And a word of warning:  this project changed my life infinitely for the better.  Be careful what you get up to in your spare time!

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/e-fire-triumph-spitfire-ev-paul-martin

After the E-Fire was destroyed, I dropped its electric drivetrain into a 1973 Triumph TR-6, converting it to a fully electric car, as my COVID project in 2020.  The project is described in this article:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/er-6-electrifying-conversion-paul-martin

This article gives considerable detail about my recent battery pack upgrade on the ER-6 project.

After 11 years, the lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery pack from the E-Fire was starting to show its age.  Many cells were below 80% of original capacity, and several failed outright.  The range of the car was therefore reduced by quite a lot- from a low starting number.  The pack also had considerable voltage sag in particular cells during hard (650A) acceleration, resulting in nuisance battery management system (BMS) alarms while driving.  The older Sinopoly cells I used in that build had a design flaw:  they used a plastic case which was fitted with a relief valve rather than a rupture disk.  Over time, the electrolyte- a solution of LiPF6 in ethylene carbonate, dimethyl carbonate and other proprietary additives, does suffer from some solvent loss to evaporation through these relief valves, which are quite flimsy things which don’t seal tightly.  The trunk (boot) of the car always had a vague smell of these solvents.  Modern LFP cells have metal cases and are fitted with rupture disks, not relief valves, to protect against venting caused by a short circuit or damage to the cell.

For some time I’d been buying the new generation of LFP cells directly from China via Alibaba.  The first order took some effort and research to ensure that we were getting adequate value for money and weren’t being taken advantage of by the seller, but after buying cells for the solar installation at my farm and for my friend’s huge home battery system, I eventually became comfortable that I knew what  was going on.  An Austrian living in Australia and his YouTube Channel “Off Grid Garage” was also of particular help.

Sadly, the original cells we were buying, though inexpensive, had specifications adequate for solar installations of limited power, but had too low a “C rate” for use in the car project.  The C rate is the maximum current draw (or current supply for charging) that the battery can handle, expressed in amps per amp-hour, i.e. in hours^-1.  A C rate of 1 means that the cell can be safely discharged from 100% to 0% state of charge (SOC) in 1 hour.  For the 280 Ah cells we were buying originally, the C rate for discharge was 0.5 C (2 hrs or 140 A) continuous and 1 C (1 hour or 280 A) for short periods.  Since the inverter was capable of drawing 650 A- and that extra current makes the car fun to drive, there was no point in using these initial cells.  Cells with higher C rate were available, but tended to be quite expensive.

That all changed however in 2024.  LFP cells popular with the solar community, made by manufacturer EVE, were finally made available with an English language specification sheet showing the following C rate data:

EVE LF304 LFP Prismatic Cell Data

Standard charging current:  152 A (0.5C)

Maximum continuous charging current:  304 A (1C)

Maximum instantaneous charging current:  2C, 30 s, <80% SOC, 25+/- 2 degrees C

Standard discharge current:  152 A (0.5 C)

Maximum continuous discharge current:  304 A (1 C)

Maximum instantaneous discharge current:  3C (912 A), 30 sec., > 20% SOC, 25+/- 2 degrees C

Initial internal resistance:  0.16 milliohms at 1 kHz, 15-40% SOC

DC internal resistance:  1.2 milliohms, 50% SOC, 1C, 10 seconds

Cycle life:  4000 cycles at 25 C   2000 cycles at 45 C

The car’s inverter is capable of drawing only 650A for short periods- a 30 S discharge at 650A would have the car up to its top speed, at a motor RPM where current draw falls off due to back EMF.   So these cells can definitely handle, in theory, “fun” currents for fast acceleration.  In fact a more detailed table in the spec sheet shows that the peak discharge is 2.12C or greater even down to -5 C temperature as long as the SOC is greater than 30%.  That’s the coldest weather this 2 seater convertible will ever be driven in- in fact as soon as road temperatures threaten to be frosty, the local road authorities dump salt on them- and this car goes away for the winter, because British cars are soluble in saltwater!

At highway speeds, current draw is around 150 A, so right about at the “normal” discharge rate for these cells, much less the maximum continuous discharge rating of 304 A.

The inverter is capable of generating 200 A of regenerative braking current, so that too is well within the capabilities of the cell. And no charger I can afford will ever charge the car at 152 A, much less 304 A!

So the specs looked good- time to negotiate!

I ordered 36 cells- 33 for the pack replacement and 3 spares.  Wise move as it turns out!

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New (EVE LF304, left) versus old (Sinopoly 180 Ah, right) cells, for comparison purposes.

Each cell holds about 1 kWh (972 Wh), and costs for the cells were on the order of $60 USD/kWh.  Shipping door to door, taxes (including Canada’s 13% HST), and the small (~3%) duty on energy storage batteries from China, added another $21/kWh.  A whole pack replacement for $2675 USD.  33 kWh this time.  My previous pack cost around $4000 USD for 18.5 kWh…that’s a pretty dramatic reduction, from $216 to $81/kWh, between 2013 and 2024.  And the prices haven’t stopped falling yet.

Better still, the new cells have a higher energy density per unit mass and volume:

Volumetric energy density:  old cells 164 Wh/L vs 395 Wh/L for the new cells- a 2.4x improvement

Mass energy density:  old cells 110 Wh/kg vs 183 Wh/kg for the new cells- a 1.66x improvement

The mass of the old and new cells were nearly identical- 5.3 kg each, so the new larger pack would not change the weight or weight distribution of the car in any respect except one- it would allow the centre of gravity to be lowered slightly, because the new cells are shorter than the old ones.

For comparison, Tesla 2170 NCA cylindrical cells are ~ 711 Wh/L and 247 Wh/kg- but remember that cylindrical cells don’t pack to the same volumetric density as prismatics do- and are way sketchier from a safety perspective for a DIYer to handle.

Turns out I had to wait a long time for delivery of my cells- much longer than the normal 5 weeks or so.  They were ordered in mid December, 2024, and weren’t received until March 24th. A combination of freight forwarder incompetence and congestion in the Canadian ports led to a very long wait, and with Alibaba you pay 100% up front, so there were some nerve-wracking days while I wondered whether or not the order had disappeared.  Although they did show up undamaged, sadly the late delivery ate much of my schedule window to install the pack before other tasks ate my life.  So the project slipped a bit onto the back burner.

All the cells were capacity tested using a very practical method:  charge at 40A to 3.65 V, then wait 10 minutes, then discharge to 2.5V at 40A, then recharge a bit for storage.  Why 40A?  Because that’s all my friend’s tester can do.  It took weeks to test all those cells, old and new!  All cells had at least 304 Ah capacity when tested that way.  The usual soak at 0.05C (15A) to get the cells with certainty to 100% SOC was ignored.  Capacities varied more with cell temperature in my partially temperature controlled shop than they did from cell to cell.

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A typical charge/discharge curve is given below:

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The charge voltage is very flat, varying little with state of charge between about 5% and 95% SOC for LFP cells- unlike with high nickel cells, voltage is nearly useless to infer state of charge with these cells.  Coulomb counting (integrating current versus time) is about the only reliable way to assess SOC, and even that must be re-set occasionally with a full charge to 100% SOC.  That’ s my normal practice with the car anyway- charge until one cell trips the BMS, then reset the coulomb counter in the car to 100% SOC/ 0 Ah drawn.  It’s worked well for years.

A graph for an old cell (purchased in 2013) is given below for comparison:

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You can see that at 40 A, the energy efficiency (discharge energy divided by charge energy) has dropped only a little, from 95% to 89%.  As the cells age, internal resistance increases, and that will show up as more cell heating and lower energy efficiency at high discharge rates.  This was observed in the pack’s performance in the car in its last year, with several cells alarming the BMS by dropping below 2.5 V during heavy acceleration.   But these cells are more than good enough to put into a solar storage application, where currents will be much lower.  So that’s where the entire old pack is going.  I expect this pack will still be doing its thing, storing and returning energy, for another decade.

Once all the cells passed their capacity tests, the “fun work could begin.

A preliminary measurement of the new cells made me quite confident that they would be a drop-in replacement, with only minor modifications required to my battery boxes.

Boy, that was wrong!

The combination of a very small (~ 1 mm) nominal width increase, plus a considerable stack-up variation in width due to small amounts of bulging in the cell sidewalls, plus the thickness of the epoxy fibreglass plates that are recommended to separate the metal-cased cells from one another in a pack (which I’ve never bothered with for my solar installations, but seemed necessary with the vibration of a car installation), meant that I had to totally re-do my front and rear battery packs.  While the new rear pack fit with ease, and the shorter cells gave enough space to finally work on the rear pack while it was installed- the front battery pack was within a few millimetres of being too wide to fit between the former engine mounting points.  Fortunately, I had a few millimetres to spare, and there was sufficient room for the polycarbonate sheets I used to armour my battery boxes- never liked the idea of using steel for that purpose.

Removing the old battery box allowed me to pull the motor, mounting plate and clutch/pressure plate assembly.  This allowed me to replace and properly re-install the clutch throw-out bearing.  The clutch is barely ever used in the EV, but the old bearing’s squeaking was driving me nuts because other than that, the loudest sound in the car is the buzz of the little 12V vacuum pump I use to provide vacuum to assist the mechanical brake master cylinder (because there is no intake manifold vacuum to do that job any more!).

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The HPEVS AC50 motor with CanEV transmission mounting plate and hub, and Toyota W50 clutch

A considerable amount of grinding, welding and cursing later, the battery boxes were finished and painted and ready to drop into the car.

Note that there is no thermal management on the batteries, because none is needed.  It’s a 3 season car, which goes away before temperatures drop to zero degrees C because that means salt will be put on the road- and British cars are known to be quite soluble in saltwater.  The pack also doesn’t need cooling, because it will never be rapid charged.  Its heat capacity is large, and the most I’ve seen the battery pack rise in temperature during a drive is about 5 degrees C.  Thermal management is simply unnecessary with LFP cells under my driving and charging conditions.

Now, the really fun stuff:  the new battery management system.

Back in 2014, there seemed to be two options for BMS:  an open-source project called “miniBMS”, which I used because it was simple, brainless and affordable, though not cheap at about $15/cell, and the Ewert Orion BMS- an expensive Cadillac of a thing which gave cell by cell data which you could display on a Bluetooth device.  I balked at the price which was over $1000 USD.

Sadly the miniBMS developer sold his project to a company which abandoned it.  Some of the boards failed in nasty ways, drawing 12 mA instead of their usual 2 mA and causing cell imbalance.  Replacement boards were not to be found.  Fortunately a donor came forward. Rasmus Banke of Banke ApS (https://banke.pro) , a maker of electric drivetrains and electric power take-off units for heavy duty trucks, had a professional quality BMS lying around that couldn’t go into a client project for a variety of reasons- and was grateful to me for dissuading him from further work in relation to hydrogen trucks…so I was happy to accept his donation. 

Sadly, the BMS requires an expensive software tool to program it, so I’d need to waste the time of the Banke team to use that option.  And in conversations with others here on LinkedIn, a couple Chinese BMS options came to my attention that I hadn’t heard of before.

I settled on the AntBMS: https://antbms.vip/products/ Things have come a long way in 11 years- this thing was about $100 CDN including shipping on AliExpress, and is full featured with Bluetooth output. No more watching blinking LEDs to tell the status of my pack, or using my Back to the Future group of six voltmeters to compare voltages on groups of cells- I can l look at every cell voltage on my phone, at a glance.

I bought the lowest current version they sold (40A) which was capable of supporting 32 cells.  That would leave me with one cell to manage manually, which I was comfortable with.

The BMS strategy I used in the E-Fire was a tried and true one recommended by Randy Holmquist of Canadian Electric vehicles back in 2013 when I was shopping around for conversion parts.  Randy has since retired, but he was very much a no nonsense “do what works and no more than that” kind of guy.  That strategy was to interlock the BMS to the charger, such that charging was terminated when any cell rose above 3.65 V.  He simply allowed the charger to “bounce” on the BMS signal, turning the charger back on again if any of the celltop BMS boards reached its reset voltage of about 3.5 V.   During discharge, i.e. while you were driving, a BMS alarm would only trigger an audible alarm- it was not interlocked to shut down the inverter or even to trigger a “limp mode”.  This would startle the driver and might be unsafe.  Risking a cell voltage reversal from over-discharge- in practice requiring deliberate ignoring of the BMS warning alarms- was worth it from a safety perspective while driving.

Implementing that same strategy, I used the BMS’s main 40A current path to drive a very simple circuit:  a 2 watt resistor was connected to cell 32, and then to the input side of an optoisolated solid state relay on the AC side of my charger.  The input is an LED which operates between 3 and 32VDC and draws about 10 mA at 12 V.  I chose the resistance to drop the voltage at the input to 12V at peak pack voltage.  I’ll use a single miniBMS board to monitor cell 33, once I get around to it.  For now, cell 33 has been discharged by 5 Ah relative to all the other cells, ensuring that it will never be the cell that trips the BMS during charging.

In hindsight, I could have used two of the somewhat better supported JK BMS units that are talked about in gruesome detail on the Off Grid Garage YouTube channel. One would handle 16 and the other 17 cells, with each acting on its own solid state relay. But then display management for my planned Bluetooth BMS display would have been more challenging.

I don’t yet have an audible alarm from the BMS, but have some ideas for how to implement one. It will take a bit of logic to tell when the car is charging (and I don’t want the noise) versus discharging (when I want a LOUD beep any time there’s a BMS alarm).

Sadly, when tightening up the bus bar connections, one of the studs welded to the battery terminals, broke off.  The studs are welded to the batteries by the supplier, not the manufacturer, and they obviously had some quality problems on their end.  I’m negotiating with them to get some spares- hopefully they live up to their responsibilities.

I wired the connections of the BMS and dutifully checked every one with my multimeter- and did find that one of my solder joints had come loose on the way to the rear pack.  Once that was fixed, I connected the BMS and pressed the on button – and was greeted by a cheery “beep” and some blinkenlights – LED status indicators that to this day I still can’t find any description of.

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Left: front battery pack (19 cells) with BMS in box on top. Centre: 4 cells in quick removable 12V pack. Right: charger variac. Centre: Curtis inverter. Lower centre: vacuum storage chamber and vacuum pump for brake master cylinder assist

Off to install the ANT BMS phone app- and that was an experience of full contact Chinese software-wrangling.  No troubleshooting information available- the unit didn’t even come with a wiring diagram.  Installing the app required me to defeat every safety feature on my Android phone, and requires full-time location access (GPS) even when the app isn’t running.  And the download page is in Chinese without an English translation. User-carnivorous software.

Downloaded the app, finally, and turned it on.  No joy.  No Bluetooth connection- and without a Bluetooth connection, the BMS is a brick.  There’s no way to configure it.

Uninstalled and re-installed the app, this time with location permissions on by default.  Powered down the device completely, and then re-started it.  Finaly the app connected – and it has never been a problem since. But still far from a satisfactory experience.

The BMS is quite full featured, but because neither my charge nor discharge current is flowing through its main metal oxide semiconductor (MOS) switch, many of its features are useless to me.  One thing I did notice during initial pack charging was that the primary overvoltage settings don’t actually open the main MOS circuit.  The device still thinks it has separate MOS switches for charging and discharging, even though it comes with two wires (B- and “everything else”, ie. a common point for both charge AND discharge) rather than with three (separate wires for charger and discharge device connection).  So after taking one cell briefly to 3.8 V (not good!), the problem was fixed, and I set all overvoltage settings to 3.65 V and reconnection to 3.55V.  It worked flawlessly throughout the arduous process of charging and balancing the pack, because my cell SOCs were all over the map before I started.

Although the BMS has a very low balancing current, that doesn’t bother me.  I don’t mind manually balancing my pack once per year- something that’s easy to do when every cell is accessible to you directly, unlike with an OEM pack.

My charger might also be of interest.  It is the cheapest, dodgiest, simplest charger imaginable, as I had no desire to re-purchase an ElCon unit after my first one let out its $1000 USD worth of smoke soon after I’d installed it into the ER-6 (after four years dutifully charging the E-Fire).

My charger consists of a 120VAC input variable autotransformer (variac) of Chinese origin, purchased on Amazon for $100 CDN.  Its switch and fuse were garbage and failed in no time- note that these things are not CSA/UL certified, should be illegal for sale as a result, and are a fire hazard until you remove their garbage switch and fuse components), but the variable autotransformer unit itself is absolutely robust and is rated for 20A.  Its input is turned on and off by the BMS via an optoisolated solid state relay as already mentioned.  The output side of the variac is fed into a 20A bridge rectifier mounted on a heatsink.  Both the rectifier and the variac are cooled continuously by an AC muffin fan.  The bridge output (full wave rectified DC) is fed to the pack via an analog ammeter and a fuse.  I have an Anderson connector on the charger’s output, which allows me to unplug it from the pack and plug the charger into a pair of clip leads which I can use to charge any group of batteries I want- an extremely handy feature when top-balancing the pack.   You simply start with the dial at zero, plug it in, and then turn the dial until the ammeter shows the current that you want. The unit can charge anywhere from one cell to the entire 33 cell pack at currents up to 15 A, though you’d need to feed it with a 20A AC circuit to keep the breaker from tripping.  But let’s just not talk about the power factor…this thing draws current only at the peak of each pulse.  It’s cheap, flexible and very cheerful though, with a “mad scientist” look, and will charge my new pack in, um, 20 hours.  Longer than overnight…Oh well, fortunately I won’t be running the pack anywhere nearly completely flat on the regular.  And of course forget about charging at even a Level 2 charging station.  Maybe one day I’ll break down and spend another $1000 USD on a “real” charger- the ones from Thunderstruck look pretty cool.  But for now I’m happy with my evil scientist Variac.

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The dash still looks sweet 5 years on. Tung oil yearly. The Intellitronix LED speedo will be replaced with a GPS speedo shortly. Gauges are, left to right: speedo, tach, coulomb counter/fuel gauge, analog ammeter, Inverter display, and 12V A/V

Initial test drives revealed some problems with the build which still need fixing. In particular the Hall effect device I’m using for accelerator pedal position sensing, doesn’t work well with my Curtis controller.  I will be putting a zero/span adjustment device on its output to feed the Curtis a signal it’s more comfortable with, and that should avoid some seasickness from the thing jerking from 50 A drive current to 50A regenerative braking every time you go over a bump and your foot moves the slightest bit.  I’ve adjusted the acceleration rate (throttle position response time constant) to compensate for now, but it makes the car sluggish off the line which is decidedly un-fun.

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Note that the car is in what my friend Tom calls “50/50 condition”, meaning that it looks great at 50 miles per hour from a distance of about 50 feet.  It badly needs bodywork and paint, and I’ve reached my lifetime limit of painting one car, so I’ll need to spring for somebody else to do this work for me-maybe next year.

The first long-ish drive I did, revealed another problem:  out of laziness more than anything else, I’d used three of the vendor-supplied solid copper bus bars on the small removable 12V pack I have up front, rather than the heavier multi-layer bars from the E-Fire.  Sadly, they weren’t up to the heavy currents drawn by my inverter.  One got hot enough to melt the heat shrink.  The hot bus bars also melted the insulation on a couple BMS wires, causing a short circuit which fried them.  In the process of replacing the inadequate bus bars, another cell post snapped off- so now I’m down to one spare cell.

The pack is now all neatened up, with the inadequate parts replaced and all the BMS wires carefully routed away from the bus bars.  A long drive today was very satisfactory and incident free.  I’m going to enjoy driving the car this fall.  After some range calculations I’ll hopefully find out if I have enough to make it both to and from the annual British Car Day show in Burlington, Ontario on a single charge.  If so, the ER-6 will be there for the first time.  It never made it there as a gasoline car- it was too unreliable to risk the trip!

Disclaimer

This article has been written by a human.  A human whose original electric conversion project, totally changed his life for the better.  A human who likes cars that drive rather than as art objects to polish or museum pieces to restore.  A human who is 100% an amateur, i.e. someone who loves both British roadsters and EVs.  If you’re pursuing a conversion yourself, do yourself a big favour and read all the threads you can at www.diyelectriccar.com, and do a bunch of additional research and reading.  Rules and regulations vary greatly from country to country- what works for me could be 100% illegal where you live- or it might be legal, but you may not be able to insure it to drive it legally on the road even if you dot all the Is and cross all the ts.  As they say, your mileage may vary!

A note to the “haters”: if you’re a classic car fanatic, and think that electric conversions are sacrilege, then please just f*ck off.    An EV conversion is no different than an engine swap, and people have been doing that with classics since cars were invented.  The TR-6 is not rare- there are tens of thousands of them still on the roads of the world, and this one was in rough shape anyway.  And it’s my car not yours, so it’s none of your damned business either way. And not everybody is in love with toxic exhaust emissions, noise, grease, and constant tinkering with 50 year old junk made at the lowest ebb of car reliability in history.  I’m in fact very grateful that most of the problematic components of this car are now being used in somebody else’s restoration project.

Chemical Recycling of Plastics

People hate plastics, or at least often say they do.  In fact they are happy to have their lives saved by single use medical plastics, and they reward the convenience of plastics at the cash register whenever they’re offered, unless somebody gets in the way with regulations, but they still claim to hate them.

Why the hate?  Because plastics are cheap and durable, they invariably become a waste problem.  And because we’ve largely socialized the cost of waste management, there isn’t a direct economic incentive- other than where that is imposed by regulation- to reduce waste plastic generation.  So most of us- this household included- seems to be positively drowning in single use plastic waste.  We dutifully chuck it all into the recycling bin and haul it out to the curb every 2 weeks, but we are also aware that less than 10% of waste plastic ends up actually being recycled.  The rest is often combusted (particularly in Europe) or landfilled, because it is collected in a form that is too dirty and mixed to make mechanical recycling feasible.

One person’s waste is often seen as another person’s resource.  And so the notion of what beneficial purpose we can put this mixed, dirty plastic waste “resource” to, has plagued the imaginations of countless people over the years.

Conversion to Energy or Fuels

Plastic is a fossil origin resource, with very few exceptions.  So no, you can’t take mixed municipal solid waste, or even “refuse derived fuel” (RDF) from sorted MSW, and convert it to other fuels by pyrolysis or gasification and get away with calling those fuels “biofuels” or “green fuels”.  Had you left the plastic alone, and simply not burned it, but rather landfilled it, its fossil origin CO2 would have remained out of the atmosphere for literally tens of thousands of years.  And no, “air-filling” is not a green alternative to landfilling.  If you want my opinions on the inherent greenwash that is “waste to energy or fuels”, you can read them in my article here.  I’ve recently re-read it and I stand by everything it says.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/waste-energy-fuels-great-greenwashing-machine-paul-martin

Circular Plastics- New Monomers From Post Consumer Plastic Waste

If you’ve been reading my work for an appreciable period, you likely know already that I view the whole notion of a “circular economy” as standing squarely against the 2nd law of thermodynamics- and in that battle, thermodynamics always wins.  Rather than the foolhardy notion of “circular economy”, we should always be talking about optimal recycle.

(my modification of the popular circular economy cartoon, which gets things totally wrong and hence needed fixing)

The optimal recycle rate is rarely zero and is NEVER 100%, for 2nd law reasons.  As we try to reduce the amount of matter waste from any process to 100%, the 2nd law looms large and eats an ever-increasing amount of energy.  As our energy sources become cleaner as we decarbonize our energy system, the optimal amount of recycle- the amount which generates the lowest net environmental harm- will increase for all processes.  But it will never be 100%.

The real question this piece must answer though, is this:  is it possible to develop a process to take post-consumer plastics and to chemically disassemble them into fresh monomers suitable for making new plastics

?

The TL&DR answer to that question is yes- but it’s very, very difficult.  It is much easier to pretend that you’re doing that, and to end up with most of the mass being used for other purposes, particularly as fuels, with most of the mass therefore ending up as CO2 in the atmosphere.  And that’s inarguably worse than simply landfilling the plastic and being done with it!

Why Fresh Monomers?

Well, because the reason we can’t recycle this shit is that it is a mixture of plastics generally- or even when it can be sorted into a pure stream of just one kind of plastic- PET water or pop bottles for example- the plastic still contains dyes or pigments, additives, fillers and other materials that render the mechanical recycled plastic product unsuitable for certain uses.  That’s not a problem as my other piece mentions:  we should have no more problem with PET bottle waste being used to make carpet fibre, than we have with copper wire being recycled into copper pipe and tubing rather than back into copper wire. 

That said, if we could de-polymerize the material into its monomers, purify those monomers to the (sometimes extreme) levels of purity that is required to make polymers of the necessary quality, and then blend those with fresh monomer to make up for losses, we could have true circularity for those materials.  On paper, or in a spreadsheet, at least.

Types of Polymers

The problem, and the size and quantity of devils associated with making fresh monomers out of post consumer waste plastic, varies greatly with the sort of polymer we’re talking about.

Polyolefin Thermoplastics

Far and away the greatest mass of plastic, and hence of waste plastic, is thermoplastics, particularly polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), with polystyrene (PS) and PVC coming up close behind.  These polymers are all made from olefin monomers, i.e. monomer chemicals containing a carbon-carbon double bond called a “vinyl group”, with either catalysts or free radical initiators used to cause them to polymerize (to link up into long chains, a process which releases a lot of heat). 

Pyrolysis

Of these major polymers, only PS depolymerizes to a significant fraction of its monomer when you heat it up in the absence of oxygen (a process called pyrolysis).  Even the yield of PS back to styrene is quite low in the best case.  There is no catalyst capable of selectively reversing the process of polymerization back to pure monomers, and there are good chemical reasons to suspect that no such catalyst will ever be developed.

Pyrolysis is reached for because it is “easy”, conceptually at least, and it yields a pyrolysis oil which can be sent to a petroleum refinery.  Done very carefully, small markets for short polymers otherwise made from fresh monomer, can be supplied by pyrolysis of waste plastics.  However, because those markets are small, most producers try to produce a generic pyrolysis oil- and of that oil, only a tiny fraction of that oil will end up being made back into olefin monomers again- perhaps 10% at best.    The rest will end up in fuels, and the fossil CO2 in that waste plastic will end up unnecessarily in the atmosphere.  Pyrolysis is disastrous when any quantity of PVC is found in the waste stream- the yield to very dangerous halo-organic molecules such as chlorinated dioxins and furans can be significant and cannot be entirely eliminated, and the best case product is hydrogen chloride which must be scrubbed out of the product vapour.  There are also additives in all of these polymers which can produce hazardous chemicals in the gas, liquid and solid (char/inorganics) fractions coming out of the pyrolysis process. 

So to call pyrolysis “chemical recycling” is, frankly, a massive greenwash.

You could increase yields to monomers by feeding pre-treated pyrolysis oil to a dedicated fluid catalytic cracking unit, but the unit economics would be poor at best.

Gasification to Syngas, and Methanol to Olefins

The other approach used for these materials is gasification, where waste materials are heated- often by partial combustion, often with steam as a co-reagent- to the point where large molecules can no longer exist.  The product is, compared to what you get when you feed natural gas to a steam reformer, quite a dirty synthesis gas containing CO2, CO, hydrogen, methane, nitrogen (if air is used as a combustion feed), water vapour, and of course HCl, HBr and HF if the waste isn’t completely free of halogens.  It is possible, with knowledge, effort and considerable investment, to clean up this gas stream to produce a feed suitable for methanol production, but there will be a significant amount of fossil origin CO2 that will need to either be disposed of via CCS or expensively back-reacted with green hydrogen to produce more CO and water using the water-gas shift reaction.  Neither option is very appealing economically. 

While methanol is itself not a monomer, about 30% of world methanol production is already being converted to olefins including ethylene and propylene in places like China and India. 

Gasification to syngas, syngas to methanol, and then methanol to olefins- wow, that’s a lot of steps!  But this process can, if you can afford to do it correctly (which is an open question!), result in considerably higher yields of waste polyolefins to fresh olefin monomers than can be achieved by pyrolysis.  However those many steps, each with energetic losses, GHG emissions and capital and other operating costs to contend with, can make the economics challenging.  Waste materials also are bulky and expensive to ship, so plants tend to be small in scale, complicating matters further.  The unit economics of post consumer waste plastic back to olefins of monomer purity via gasification and methanol to olefins (MTO) are at present undemonstrated.

The added complication is the desire to use methanol as a fuel, particularly for shipping.  It will become obvious that people starting with mixed municipal solid waste or waste-derived solid fuel, will want to count some of their resulting syngas and methanol as having come from biomass, and hence to be suitable for use as a fuel, while the rest might only be acceptable if it can be economically back-converted to polymers.  The opportunities for fraud and the need for stringent regulatory control is therefore evident.

And no, Fischer Tropsch is not a suitable consumer of the resulting syngas, either.  FT stands for “fundamentally terrible”, or a ruder but more accurate word starting with F may also be substituted here.

So far therefore, chemical recycling of polyolefin thermoplastics is at best a concept, and more often than that, if pyrolysis is involved, it can be a borderline environmental fraud- effectively a waste to energy process masquerading as waste to chemicals or plastics.  This makes it hard for legitimate project proponents who are truly interested in decarbonization and environmental solutions, to differentiate themselves from the enviro-alchemists who attempt to convince us that waste to anything is better than landfilling.  It’s important to realize that it ain’t necessarily so!

Thermosets

Thermosets are a class of polymers which involve crosslinks between the polymer chains. Crosslinking provides beneficial mechanical properties to polymers such as rubber, coatings, epoxies and vinylester resins which are used to make composites such as glass- and carbon-fibre reinforced plastics etc.  However, crosslinking processes are even harder to reverse than polymerization itself.  So far, nobody has good processes for recycling any post consumer thermoset plastic back to its constituent monomers that I’m aware of.  I’m constantly hearing people announce that they’ve found beneficial ways to recycle materials such as tires or wind turbine blades, but they usually mean recovering energy or similar pyrolysis oils to what we’ve previously mentioned, and reinforcing materials like glass fibre or carbon black. That is a long way from true chemical recycling, and in my view there isn’t a good prospect for that to change any time soon.  Redesign of the source polymers might yield some hope, but if crosslinks can be easily reversed, environmental durability of the material will almost certainly suffer.

While the potential for re-use or repurposing of post consumer thermosets is very real- witness the wonders which are done with rubber crumb from tires, and the creative solutions for the re-use of sections of fatigued wind turbine blades- most thermosets are destined for landfill.  And that frankly shouldn’t concern us too much, because they are inert in landfill and their environmental impact ends after they are properly collected and disposed of.

Condensation Polymers

A whole class of polymers, some of them thermoplastics, others thermosets, are so-called condensation polymers.  The main examples include polyesters like polyethylene terephthalate (PET), polyamides (Nylon) and polyurethanes, and natural examples such as cellulose.  These polymers involve either two different monomers, or bifunctional monomers with different reactive groups at each end.  These groups react with one another to form chains, with the elimination of a small molecule in the process (generally but not always water). 

Polyesters and polyamides involve the reaction of an organic acid group with an alcohol or an amine respectively, with water being the byproduct.  It is therefore possible, at least in theory, under the right chemical conditions, to hydrolyze (break with water) these polymer molecules to re-form the monomers.  Regenerating isocyanates from polyurethanes is, in contrast, not something  worth considering.  Over millennia, hydrolysis may even happen, at least in theory, on contact with subsurface water- therefore unlike polyolefins which are absolutely stable in landfill with high certainty, there may be some arguable environmental benefit to not landfilling certain condensation polymers.  It is also possible to carry out alcoholysis, by substituting an alcohol like methanol or ethylene glycol for water, which can give certain advantages.

Condensation polymers require very high purity monomers.  Any quantity of a monomer with a damaged or missing 2nd reactive group becomes a chain terminator, limiting the molecular weight and hence badly affecting the mechanical properties of the polymer. Even once polymers are broken apart by hydrolysis or alcoholysis, purification to pure monomer can be expected to be a tricky problem.

While it’s clear that when mechanical recycling is possible (as it is readily with PET), it is the more environmentally sensible approach, it certainly is technically feasible to achieve even quite high yields of fresh monomer from post-consumer condensation polymers.  However, a good 3rd party lifecycle analysis study is essential to understand whether or not the option of chemical recycling is of any value at all, even if the company developing the process thinks that they can make money doing it.  The capital and energy and reagent intensity can all be very large.

Summary and Conclusions

While it is clear from even a perfunctory LCA that mechanical recycling, where feasible, is a better alternative, chemical recycling can be an option for condensation polymers- but only where a good, disinterested 3rd party LCA shows a real environmental benefit relative to landfilling (an option often ignored in LCAs).  The main problem polymers, PE and PP however, can only be meaningfully recycled by a multistep process involving gasification, methanol synthesis and conversion to olefins, which has not yet been economically demonstrated.  And thermosets are largely a disposal problem, not one of feasible recycling, until we invent reversible crosslinks that are environmentally durable.

The Ocean Cleanup is as Dumb as DAC- and that’s saying something

photo credit: Ocean Cleanup

UPDATED: 7 Aug 2025, to fix typos and to repeat myself about real solutions, because commenters simply will not click on the links to other articles where I deal with these solutions in depth

To some, this one is a really sacred cow for some reason.  And frankly I find the smell of sacred cows delicious when they’re put on the barbeque.

I commented on a post about the Ocean Cleanup the other day.  For those of you who don’t know, Ocean Cleanup is a company founded in 2013 by a Dutch 18 yr old named Boyan Slat, intent on removing macroplastic from the surface of oceans.  And I got quite a bit of blowback from fans of the concept, the company, or both.

The post I criticized had been spread by a connection of mine, but was likely AI generated, like a lot of the garbage that dominates my LinkedIn feed these days.  It promoted the idea that if you see something in the world that you think needs fixing, you should jump in and try to fix it.  You should, to quote my connection, “Jump in and start.  Iterate, fail, improve, fail, learn, succeed”.   Ocean Cleanup is cited as a success story for that strategy.  But more than that, it’s a meme:  a meme about how a teenage boy, through grit and perseverance and the ability to tell a good story, changed the world.

Like many truisms, it sounds like good advice.  We don’t get anywhere if we just talk, and don’t act.

But it is, in fact, extremely bad advice.

What’s missing?  The first step.  THINK.  Gather data.  Learn.  Analyze. Then focus your effort on solving the right problem, at the right part of the problem chain.  An hour in the library can save months in the lab.  And these days, you don’t even need to go to the library for pity’s sake!  We all have the library in our pocket.

And that’s what the Ocean Cleanup was missing from the get-go:  the problem analysis step.

Analyzing a Problem

I spent the first five years of my career in water treatment.  Developing new technology, and using it to solve real world water treatment problems.  As evidence, here’s a picture of me in 1992 or so, in the back woods of a Trident submarine base, doing full-contact water treatment system piloting.  I was not only running a complex advanced oxidation pilot plant, in a tent, on a generator, I was also doing my own analysis, running an HPLC off that same generator.  We were treating groundwater containing historic contamination from explosives disposal, and were routinely reducing concentrations from 10s of ppm each of TNT, TNB, RDX and other dangerous materials, to below the HPLC/UV detection limit of about 5 ppb.  I am mentioned as co-inventor on patents from those days, but they’re all public domain now- and aside from the token amount given to us as “consideration” to make the patent assignment contract legal, none of them ever made me personally any money.  But it was, for sure, a top-notch learning experience which served as the jumping off point of a multi-decade career focused on technology development.

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And for the next 25 years, I donated time by teaching a section of a 4th year chemical engineering water treatment course at the University of Waterloo- a way I could repay my debt of gratitude to the university that would benefit the students directly.

 

In my course materials, the first section was devoted to properly analyzing a water treatment problem.  And it correctly put the primary effort into moving as far upstream as possible, to find the source of the pollution that was causing the problem.  Eliminate the problem at its source.  It may be as simple as training employees, or firing bad ones, or changing materials and methods that are being used in something really trivial.  End of pipe solutions are to be reached for only as a last resort, and they are to be used to treat the effluent of the smallest pipe, as far upstream, as possible. 

Why? 

The 2nd law of thermodynamics.  Fighting entropy costs energy which costs money.  Always.

Analyzing the Problem of Plastic in the Oceans

A basic analysis of the problem of plastic in the oceans must begin with combatting a number of myths.  I can’t do a better job of this than Chris DeArmitt already has.  Here’s a link to a page from his Plastic Paradox website which gives lots of relevant information:

A couple of things right off the bat:

1)       Most of the mass of plastics in the oceans is macroplastics, meaning pieces larger than about 0.5 cm in at least one dimension

2)      Most macroplastics in the oceans comes from two places:

a.      The fishing industry- and their macroplastic debris includes materials very damaging to sea life such as ghost nets and lines

b.      Poor people living along 10 major rivers in Asia and Africa.  These people lack the basic sanitation and waste collection infrastructure to keep their waste plastics from being washed into rivers and hence into the ocean

3)      Microplastics are generated not just from the breakdown of macroplastics that find their way into the environment, but also from sources like the wearing of rubber tires and coatings used on ships and sea structures, laundry of synthetic fibres etc.

4)      Neither microplastics nor typical macroplastics from the breakdown of waste articles washed out to sea, have meaningful evidence of harm from the plastic particles themselves, at the exposure rates that are encountered in nature.

5)      The notion that waste materials that were properly disposed of in Europe or North America, are more than a very small fraction of the waste plastic materials found in the ocean due to illegal dumping and the waste/recycling trade, is false.  While only a small fraction of properly disposed plastic waste is recycled, the balance is either incinerated (i.e. dumping the effluent into the gaseous ocean we all depend on for our lives, the atmosphere) or landfilled.  And in the latter case, the emissions from buried plastic, simply cease.  Plastics, protected from oxygen and sunlight, can remain stable in landfill for tens of thousands of years.

Had Boyan Slat done the first step properly, he wouldn’t have started with an attempt to passively filter plastic garbage from the so-called Great Pacific Garbage Patch. 

He’d have rapidly realized that measured plastic densities even in these legendary “gyres”, where currents cause surface debris to collect, are (based on a quick Google search) on the order of 10-100 kg of plastic per square kilometre of ocean.  DeArmitt’s website puts that figure as closer to 1 kg/km2 at most, based on better data from Chris’s more extensive reading of the literature, but let’s give the Google hyperbole its due for a moment.   To put that in context:  assume that the materials are all found within the top metre of depth, and let’s believe the 100 kg/km2 figure- which might be 2 orders of magnitude too high.  100 kg/km2 is 100 kg of plastic in 10^9 kg of seawater, to a first approximation.  That’s 100 parts per billion (ppb).

For reference, CO2 in the atmosphere is 416 parts per million, or 416,000 ppb.  And you know, or should know already, what I think of direct air capture as a GHG emission mitigation strategy.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-direct-air-capture-sucks-good-way-paul-martin

If at First You Don’t Analyze- At Least Learn, and Pivot

After spending tens of millions of dollars on failed trials of passive collectors that drift along on the top of the sea (the meme that the company was founded on, to much media fanfare), the company now focuses on two areas:  towed net systems, and river interceptors.

Can you guess which of these two collects more plastic, at a lower cost?  Prevents more harm?

Which of these two options would a basic, five minute analysis have led the company toward, if that analysis had been done- and more importantly, if the founder’s meme could possibly have been identified for what it was- a naïve idea from a teenager who was, at the time, more or less ignorant of the real issues- and then abandoned as a bad idea?

Ocean Cleanup has, per its website, collected about 8,500 tonnes of waste plastic from oceans and rivers in 2023, at a cost of over $5/kg of waste collected.  They made some $300 designer sunglasses out of some of that waste plastic apparently, as a funding gimmick.  And that $5/kg, i.e. at least 5x the purchase price of the plastic itself, is an improvement from previous efforts by a considerable margin.  But is this scheme to be taken seriously?

Who Funds the Ocean Cleanup Meme?

It started with crowdfunding, but rapidly moved on to ultra-rich philanthropists and corporate donations- including Coca Cola.   Rather like Oxy Petroleum bought Carbon Engineering, major emitters find it useful to buy memes like this, in aid of predatory delay against real actions that would curb their contribution toward emissions.  And that, folks, is why I hate these memes.  False hope in false future solutions, serve as predatory delay strategies against real action.

OK, Smartass- What Should We Do About the Plastic Waste Crisis?

Let’s be clear:  nobody should want plastic in the oceans, or deliberately put it there.  It doesn’t belong there.

The majority of the mass of plastic waste is of the cheapest plastics, polyethylene (PE) and polypropylene (PP), and most of it was originally used as single use packaging. Neither molecule is itself particularly hazardous.  While these materials can be recycled mechanically into fairly low value goods, and broken down chemically (partially) into valuable waxes and other materials to serve small markets, the main options for their disposal remain incineration, waste-to-fuels schemes (i.e. incineration, once removed), and landfilling.  Of these options, landfilling is the best by far.   Nations that don’t like landfilling because they are too precious with their land, should either reduce the mass of plastic waste they generate by means of severe deposit-return schemes so more of it can be collected clean and separated for recycling, or they should pay other nations to landfill it for them.  Air-filling should not be on the table, given that plastic in landfill is utterly non-hazardous, and stores its fossil origin CO2 more or less permanently.

UPDATE: the comments indicate clearly that I have to repeat myself. This is all covered in other articles, links to which have been provided, but here goes. Here’s how we should deal with plastic waste:

1) The cost burden of post-consumer handling of plastic waste, needs to be borne by the people who benefit from the use of plastic in the first place. That’s also a necessary but insufficient solution to GHG emissions by the way. There are many ways to implement this, and societies need to debate amongst themselves which methods suit their needs and values best

2) Substitutions should never be done on the basis of a naturalistic fallacy. Paper usually has an inferior LCA performance against fossil plastic when the base case for fossil plastic is landfill disposal, as just one example

3) Some societies will decide, in accordance with their values, that certain single uses of plastics are not valuable enough to merit their environmental impact. Fair enough- again, as long as those decisions are based on good, solid, 3rd party LCAs, with the right reference case for comparison. Otherwise, expect impacts to be worse rather than better, and for small, visible problems to be replaced with larger but invisible ones

4) Deposit-return schemes are one valid way to transfer end use costs to up-front users, and to ensure that plastics return properly separated and clean for mechanical recycling. Where this is done (with PET bottles in Scandinavia, and in PEI in Canada, return rates are astoundingly high). By the way, this is needed even moreso with aluminum cans, which have huge embodied emissions and energy. Every aluminum can that ends up in landfill is an abject environmental tragedy

5) Mechanical recycling is low impact and has an excellent LCA when done properly, but requires markets for the recycled goods to be at all feasible. With recycling rates of less than 10% of plastics currently, it’s hard to see that increasing to 50% ever

6) A stream of waste plastic that is too mixed and/or dirty will inevitably be generated at some point. The options for disposing of that stream are incineration, i.e. air-filling, pyrolysis and other waste to energy schemes, i.e. incineration once removed, and landfilling. The only one of these that has any environmental merit, at all, is landfilling. And no, that’s not an argument in favour of landfilling mixed municipal solid waste, either. We’re only talking about the plastic waste portion. Separation is still required, with wet organics going to anaerobic digestion to make biogas, which has high value post decarbonization.

But you can’t dispose waste properly if you don’t collect it in the first place.  And no waste disposal solution can fix that problem.  That requires regulation and enforcement, and public investment in infrastructure.  It’s not a problem the market can solve.  Just like climate change.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/waste-energy-fuels-great-greenwashing-machine-paul-martin

(and beware of chemical recycling of plastics- it can be valid, but it can also be incineration with a thick coat of obscuring greenwash)

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/chemical-recycling-plastics-alchemy-waste-management-paul-martin-byg1c

If we care about plastics in the oceans, our first focus must be on the fishing industry because their gear, whether it be crab pots or fishing lines or nets, is inarguably damaging to marine life including endangered species such as whales.

Our next focus must be on improving sanitation for the poorest people living next to the most populated river systems in the world.  Improved sanitation and waste disposal won’t just keep plastic out of the oceans- it will save lives.  And yes, that’s a hard problem to solve, because frankly we don’t seem to care much about poor people, beyond feigned concern.  

Frankly I’m not at all concerned about microplastics in the ocean from the wear of coatings or from laundry of synthetic fibres.  Why not?  Because I’ve seen no evidence that they cause harm, and have heard of no credible mechanism by which the plastic particles themselves should be expected to cause harm.  And if we do find evidence to warrant concern, the ocean is the last place to bother with these, for one simple reason:  the oceans are vast, and concentrations are going to be very, very low. And we already know, or should know, that humans are positively shit at evaluating comparative risk. That evaluation needs to be done by professionals who are trained to do it, rather than relying on public perception.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/safe-limit-alcohol-really-paul-martin

Criticism of My Position

Several commentors on my contact’s post, were quite aghast at my criticism of Ocean Cleanup.  Several told me to stop criticizing things and to propose my own solutions.

Well, folks, I have done so.  Many times. And in fact I’ve even edited my article to include a detailed re-iteration of my proposed solutions- even though they’re already presented in previous articles, links to which have been provided.

Those who think I’m a worthless curmudgeon who merely shits on other people’s ideas and has none of his own, are encouraged to read a few of my articles, particularly this one, which deals with the most pressing issue of our times in my opinion:  our need to totally reorganize our entire relationship with energy.  This piece has not been anywhere nearly as well read as I’d have liked, and yet has needed very little revision since I wrote it originally.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/what-energy-solutions-paul-martin

Disclaimer: this article has been written by a human, who does love the smell of roasted sacred cow.  If I’ve made a mistake- which happens- or let my taste for roast meat get in the way of the accuracy of my analysis, then by all means bring this to my attention and, with proper references and review, I’ll be grateful to change my analysis to better fit the new data.

If however the problem you have with my article is the mere fact that I’ve skewered your sacred cow, then I encourage you to take it up with my employer, Spitfire Research Inc., who will be more than happy to tell you to piss off and write your own article.

Wrecking Stuff to Make Hydrogen

A Coke can that has been dissolved in sodium hydroxide, revealing its internal plastic liner (photo credit- YouTube)

TL&DR:  destroying reduced metals/metalloids like aluminum and silicon is a really, really dumb way to make hydrogen.  It is energetic vandalism, and generates unnecessary toxic emissions to generate a low value product.

A shorter, more perfunctory version of this argument is available in an article for TreeHugger by Lloyd Alter, which quotes a LinkedIn post I made about this three years ago that somehow vanished from LinkedIn without explanation.

https://www.treehugger.com/why-make-hydrogen-aluminum-6752088

Lots of idiots are talking about making hydrogen by reacting metals like aluminum or metalloids like silicon, with water.  Why?  Because hydrogen, despite being a very low cost commodity chemical, 99% of which is produced from fossils like natural gas and coal without carbon capture, is a vector for #hopium.  Its largely pretended and heavily exaggerated future as an energy vector and fossil fuel substitute, gives it a certain cachet with people who don’t understand chemistry.  Foolishness and wasted money- largely public money- is the inevitable result.

In order to explain the stupidity of these notions, we have to look carefully at what chemical reduction is, and why it’s so important.

A key thing to remember in chemistry is “LEO says GER”:  loss of electrons is oxidation, and gaining electrons is reduction.  Oxidants (examples being oxygen, chlorine, hydrogen peroxide etc.) are things that accept electrons readily, and reductants (examples being carbon, hydrogen and metals like sodium and magnesium) are things that give up electrons readily.  Electric currents can also be used to force things to oxidize and other things to be reduced- the perfect example is the electrolysis of water, where hydrogen ions gain electrons (are reduced) to form hydrogen gas, and oxygen ions are oxidized (lose electrons) to form oxygen gas.

Reductants Are Important

Thanks to the autotrophs about 2.1 to 2.4 billion years ago, we’re swimming in an atmosphere which is about 20.9% oxygen.  Since we live in a swamp of a fairly strong oxidant, we don’t tend to find reductants just lying about.  Because- what’s another name for a reductant?

A fuel.

A fuel is, in the typical way we think of the word, something you can react with oxygen to make energy (though we also talk about uranium and thorium as nuclear “fuels”).  Fire is, frankly, optional.

And yes, that makes metals “fuels”, too- though some of them burn in air only with difficulty.

Winning Metals From Their Ores

Very few metals are found in the reduced state in nature.  Only copper, silver, gold and some of the platinum group metals are found uncombined with other elements on earth, and generally in quite tiny quantities too.  All the others are found in an oxidized state, as metal ions in compounds with other elements, particularly oxygen and sulphur. And reducing those metals to their native metallic state, takes considerable energy.  That energy obviously has to come from somewhere.

The method of reduction used in producing a metal varies depending on its ore, what other metals and non-valuable rock (gangue) it is found with, and what process is used to purify the metal prior to reduction.

Carbothermic Reduction

Iron is an example of a metal produced by carbothermic reduction.  Iron ores consist of iron oxides containing iron in the Fe+2 and Fe+3 oxidized states.  Iron has historically been reduced by reacting these oxides with carbon monoxide produced by the partial oxidation of carbon.  Originally it was charcoal which we used in our pottery fires, and later it was metallurgical coal.  The reaction between CO and iron oxides is exothermic and produces CO2.   About 4% of iron today is reduced by reacting it with mixtures of carbon monoxide and hydrogen made from natural gas- a process referred to as the direct reduction of iron (DRI).

The reductant (the thing that is oxidized) is carbon, and the products of that oxidation are heat and carbon dioxide.  The oxygen in this case is partially supplied as combustion air, and partially comes from the oxygen bonded to the iron in the ore.

Silicon is made in a similar method:  carbon and silica (SiO2, quartz sand) are reacted with one another in a submerged arc furnace, yielding molten metallurgical silicon and carbon dioxide.  Boron, another metalloid, can be produced in a similar fashion.

Obviously in a decarbonized future, other methods will be required.  In the case of iron, hydrogen can be used to replace carbon with electric resistance heating required because the reaction between iron oxides and hydrogen is endothermic, not exothermic.  Sadly, those processes don’t work with silicon or boron, so our choice there is either carbon capture and storage, or the development of other methods.  But while we could emit fossil CO2 to the atmosphere without a care in the world, it was all good fun. 

“Smelting”

Some metals, including copper, zinc, lead, nickel, cobalt and iron, are also found in the form of sulphides.  Sulphur, like carbon, can be oxidized with oxygen, producing sulphur dioxide.  Sulphide ores of these metals can be heated to high temperatures under oxidizing conditions, in some cases yielding molten metal rather than the metal oxide, and SO2.  The SO2 can be further reacted with oxygen to produce SO3, which reacts with water to make sulphuric acid H2SO4.  Of course in the old days, we vented the SO2 and it produced sulphuric acid in nearby lakes, rivers and soils, dropping the pH, mobilizing phytotoxic metals and rendering the surrounding countryside into a hellscape.  That’s been frowned upon since the 1980s, but in the old days, piling ore on top of a bonfire consisting of hundreds of thousands of trees was considered a valid method of metal production. 

Hydrometallurgy and Electrowinning

When nickel, copper, cobalt etc. are found as oxides rather than sulphides, “smelting” won’t do the trick because there’s no reductant available.  In some cases, carbothermic reduction is possible, but in others, it isn’t.  Accordingly other methods of reduction are used.  The ore concentrates are often dissolved in acid to produce a solution of metal ions.  The metal ions are then separated from one another by various means, and then each metal is reduced.  While hydrogen can be used as a reductant in some cases, electrowinning is the typical method used today.  Electrowinning involves “plating” the metal from aqueous solution electrolytically, onto a starter sheet made of pure metal.  Electrowinning is extremely energy intensive,but serves to both reduce the metal and to considerably purify it by a combination of preferential electrolysis and preferential crystallization.  As an example, copper is electrowon from a sulphuric acid solution:

At the cathode:  Cu+2 + 2e-  à Cu (metal)

At the anode:  2H2O + 4e- + 4H+ + O2(g)

The result is the production of very pure copper plus the regeneration of the H2SO4 used to produce the copper sulphate solution.

Reactive Metals

Aluminum, magnesium, lithium, sodium, potassium, calcium, titanium, zirconium and other reactive metals are generally uncooperative.  Some of them are very easily oxidized, and to reduce them we need more violent methods.  While magnesium can be produced from its carbonate by a carbo-ferro-thermic reduction under vacuum (called the Pidgeon process), most reactive metals can’t be produced either by carbothermic or aqueous electrolysis means. 

These reactive metals are all produced  in one of two ways:

  1. Electrolysis of a molten salt of the metal, or
  2. Reduction using a more strongly reducing metal (i.e. magnesium is frequently used for this purpose).  Titanium and zirconium, for instance, are made by reducing their chlorides with magnesium metal to form magnesium chloride, which can be recycled to magnesium and chlorine by molten salt electrolysis.  As my old friend Alex Grant is fond of saying, “titanium is just two magnesiums in a trench coat”- titanium is produced by “magnesio-thermic reduction”

Aluminum is the key example here, as it is produced in giant quantity and is the 2nd most important structural metal next to iron. 

Aluminum is produced from ores containing aluminum oxide (alumina) such as bauxite.  The alumina is extracted and purified by the Bayer process (currently largely fossil fueled today like most industrial processes requiring heat), and then mixed with a fluoride containing flux to reduce its melting point.  The flux-alumina mixture is melted at around 950 C and electrolyzed. 

The electrolyzer, a large refractory-lined box, has a cathode layer on the bottom and inserted from the top.  The anodes used are generally carbon, made from a mixture of petroleum coke and “pitch” (residuum), and the cathodes are graphite.  The anode, where oxygen is generated, serves two purposes:  it carries away electrons liberated by oxygen generation to the electrical circuit, and it reacts with that oxygen to produce CO and CO2.  The resulting carbothermic reduction carried out by the anodes reduces the electrical energy required to carry out the reduction, at the cost of both CO2 emissions and the emission of fluorocarbon compounds of increasing toxicological concern. 

While inert anodes have been developed (Google the company Elysis for more details), the resulting reductions in CO2 emissions come at a cost of a considerable increase in the electrical energy intensity of aluminum production.

Aluminum production is already extremely electrical energy intensive.  Figures vary, numerous LCA studies can be reviewed for details, but to a first approximation, aluminum production requires about 8.5 kWh/kg (largely heat) for raw materials production (including about 4.5 kWh/kg aluminum for the consumed carbon anodes’ embodied energy) and about 15.5 kWh/kg (largely electricity) for electrolysis.  At 24 kWh/kg in total, which is only 86 MJ per kg, the figure is considerably lower than figures published for aluminum’s embodied energy, which can range from 190 to 230 MJ per kg (53 to 64 kWh/kg) of primary energy- though it appears that this is largely a result of the fact that much aluminum production in the world is not made using hydroelectricity or nuclear power, but rather using fossil fuels (whose primary energy is only partially converted to electricity). 

Regardless how you slice it, aluminum is an extremely energy intensive metal.  The carbon intensity varies, but even if absolutely GHG free power is used for electrolysis and also for the Bayer process (which currently is nearly 100% fossil fueled), 0.45 kg of carbon anodes are combusted per kg of aluminum produced- that alone represents 1.65 kg of CO2 per kg of aluminum.  Typical figures for aluminum production today are on the order of 15 kg CO2e/kg aluminum.

Taking a soda (pop) can with a mass of about 14 grams and a volume of 330 mL, the energy intensity is particularly stark.  24 kWh/kg (i.e. the low heat + electricity figure, ignoring the upstream conversion of heat to electricity) means the embodied energy of the can is about 0.34 kWh (mostly electricity) and its embodied emissions of its raw material alone are about 0.21 kg of CO2e.  If you were burn 330 mL of gasoline in a 25% gasoline generator, you’d have about 0.33 L x 8.9 kWh/L LHV x 25% = 0.73 kWh.  So the next time you’re tempted to throw an aluminum can into the garbage rather than the recycling bin, consider that you’re throwing away embodied energy amounting to the work potential of about ½ that same can full of gasoline.  You either need to stop using aluminum cans, or make sure that they’re properly recycled- even if that means carrying it around with you for a while until you find a recycling bin.

The heat of formation of alumina from aluminum and oxygen is -1676 kJ/mol.  That’s the ultimate embodied energy of aluminum from a chemical potential energy standpoint.  That’s 1.67 MJ /3.6 MJ/kWh/0.027 kg/mol = 17 kWh/kg.  You might be tempted then to divide 17 kWh/kg by 24 kWh/kg from the energy of production figure and come up with an efficiency of 71%- but that would involve comparing a product (17 kWh of mostly heat) against a feedstock of considerably higher value (24 kWh of mostly electricity).  While the current (faradaic) efficiency of modern aluminum  electrolysis cells is about 90-95%, their energy efficiency is closer to 45%.  These devices spend most of their energy grinding thermodynamic work (electricity) up and spitting out not aluminum metal, but heat.

(The data used here is a little dated, but the paper itself is absolutely rich with detail and very easy to read- much less of a mental bludgeon than a typical academic LCA study)

https://www.aceee.org/files/proceedings/2003/data/papers/SS03_Panel1_Paper02.pdf

Fortunately, aluminum is also extremely easy to recycle and has a very high value in the recycling stream.  Recycling aluminum waste reduces the energy intensity of its use by about 95%.

So- What’s Wrong with Using Metals to Make Hydrogen? 

Well, the same thing that’s wrong with burning metals as fuels.  And yes, people are proposing to do that, too.

The foregoing should demonstrate fairly clearly that we expend a lot of effort and energy, and generate lots of emissions (toxic and GHGs alike), in the effort to win metals from their ores. 

If we were to burn finely divided aluminum, we’d make alumina dust and heat.  However, aluminum rapidly self-passivates by producing a protective layer of alumina which reduces the reactivity of the underlying metal.  The same happens when we immerse aluminum in water.

However, if we use a method to disrupt the alumina film (gallium or indium or mercury will do this), we can cause aluminum to react with water to produce aluminum hydroxide or oxy-hydroxide, and hydrogen.  We can also react aluminum metal with sodium hydroxide solution to produce sodium aluminate (NaAlO2) and hydrogen.

Well heck- you could use sodium instead! Chuck sodium metal into water and you get sodium hydroxide and hydrogen- no fancy gallium required!

Why would we want to do this?  After all, aluminum hydroxide or oxy-hydroxide, and sodium aluminate, are what we started from in the Bayer process when we were purifying bauxite to make alumina!  Same deal with sodium- it’s made by electrolysis of sodium chloride, forming sodium metal and chlorine gas- not by electrolysis of molten sodium hydroxide which is also possible- but still, you can likely see where I’m going here.

The desire to do this crazy thing comes from a) the problems of hydrogen

storage and distribution due to its low energy density per unit volume and b) hydrogen’s incredibly simpleminded seductiveness as a potential low carbon fuel.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/green-hydrogen-fuel-zombie-meme-paul-martin-gpplc

Why carry around low density gaseous or slightly higher density ultracryogenic liquid hydrogen, when you can carry around aluminum, a catalytic amount of (extremely rare and expensive) gallium, and can find water lying about in ponds all over the place?  You can make hydrogen on demand!

Well…you mean aside from the extreme emissions intensity, and the thermodynamic stupidity of the whole thing?

The excuse is “we can use waste aluminum”, and “alumina is valuable”.

What  is Waste Aluminum?

If it’s aluminum metal scrap, in metallic sections of decent dimension, that can be easily recycled- right back into aluminum products. The recycling rate of aluminum metal is already very high.  If it’s pure aluminum (which we rarely use), it can be recycled into aluminum metal and used again straight away.  If it’s an alloy, it can be used to make aluminum alloys by judicious blending with pure aluminum, which is how we recycle every other metal. 

This is no different than how we recycle all other metals:  copper, for instance.  Copper wire scrap isn’t used to make copper wire, as the purity requirements of conduction applications are too high to satisfy with scrap.  So instead, we use wire scrap to make pipe and tubing.  And we use pipe and tubing scrap, which might be contaminated with lead or tin or antimony from solder, to make brasses and bronzes.  What do we do with scrap brasses and bronzes?  What we can’t use to make more brasses and bronzes, we might bite the bullet and send back to a copper refinery so the copper value can be recovered again by electrowinning.  What we don’t do is chuck the whole works in acid and electro-win it every time, because that would be energetic and emissions insanity!

The real issue is that we use aluminum sometimes in product forms that are difficult to recycle.  Some examples are aluminum foil and thin aluminum packaging articles like disposable pie plates.  These items tend to burn (oxidize) rather than melting, unless they are carefully separated and compressed first.

We also use aluminum in micro-thin layers- vapour-deposited aluminum on potato chip bag film, for instance, which can be only a few nanometres thick but which still provides incredible value as an oxygen and light barrier.

Those uses, plus aluminum that is “lost” because people chuck their cans and other products into a landfill stream that isn’t properly sorted.  While these losses are real, and have emissions associated with them that we should be concerned about, most of the uses are either a) very small users of aluminum in mass terms or b) are only available in theory, rather than in practice, as they are not segregated from the waste stream or attached to much larger masses of other material (i.e. plastic).

Are there heaps of aluminum alloy scrap laying around, going unrecycled, that could become a ready, cheap source for making hydrogen?

No, there aren’t.  Point me to some, and I’ll point you to a business opportunity!

And remember:  if an aluminum waste stream is too contaminated with other metals to be used in making fresh aluminum alloy products, then any oxide or oxy-hydroxide made from that material is going to be useless too.

The Thermodynamics of Making Hydrogen From Aluminum

Ultimately we’re talking about a process for water electrolysis to produce hydrogen, except we’re doing it indirectly using aluminum.  Instead of producing oxygen from water, we’re producing aluminum oxide, hydroxide or oxy-hydroxide- but to close the loop, we’ll have to produce aluminum again from these materials.  It’s not more complex than that, irrespective of what project proponents might tell you!

Water electrolysis is already possible at efficiencies as high as 95% on the HHV basis (which is 80% on the LHV basis- the 6.1 kWh/kg of heat of condensation of the product water is lost in any device that attempts to produce work (electricity) from hydrogen).  Real electrolyzers you can afford to buy are closer to 50-55 kWh/kg H2 all in, or about 60-66% LHV efficient.  So- why on earth would we bother with aluminum as a middleman?  If melt electrolysis alone runs around 45-50% electrical energy efficiency, why would we want to substitute THAT for water electrolysis?  And remember, we still have to collect up all this wet oxy-hydroxide from points of hydrogen use and bring it back to a Bayer plant to calcine it- assuming it’s not too contaminated for re-use.

What’s Really Going On Here

 This is really just another hydrogen export scam.  People confronted with the fundamental, immutable properties of the hydrogen molecule, which make it a poor choice of fuel even if it were possible to make it efficiently for that purpose, end up inevitably reaching for a way to convert hydrogen into something else which is easier to transport.  And by so doing, they always end up in another, deeper thermodynamic hole.  A hole which they fall into, losing energy on the way in, and have to climb back out of – using energy to do that, too.

It’s true with all methods proposed for hydrogen storage or remote hydrogen generation.  Doesn’t matter if you reach for ammonia, methanol, liquid organic hydrogen carriers, metal hydrides either as reagents with water to make hydrogen or as chemi-sorbents for gaseous hydrogen, or chucking aluminum or sodium or sodium borohydride into water.  They all make the thermodynamic cycle path longer by introducing “middlemen”, which add cost and complexity and which waste energy.

The Bottom Line

Anybody proposing to use aluminum “waste” to make hydrogen is an energetic vandal.  The same is true of anyone planning to use reduced silicon waste, but even worse because silicon production is purely carbothermic at present.  The resulting energy cycle efficiency is terrible, making water electrolysis look wonderful in comparison, and it’s craptastic compared with batteries.  The toxic emissions footprint of the resulting hydrogen will also be disgusting. 

And so what will you see them do?  They’ll try to justify it either via the (non-existent) market value of the alumina/oxy-hydroxide product, or they’ll compare it against a strawman- using the hydrogen as a transport fuel for instance, as a recent MIT study tried to do.  When you compare against the real reference technology- using battery EVs for transport instead for instance- the result is still clear as a bell.  Hydrogen is a dumbass fuel for transport, regardless how you make it.

If you do happen to have tons of reduced metals laying around that you want to throw away just for their energy value, you could easily enough make a primary (non-rechargeable) battery out of them.  At least then you’ll get thermodynamic work (electricity) rather than energetically useless hydrogen.

Can You Make Hydrogen From Other Wastes?

Another popular myth is that you can take a fossil fuel, such as waste plastic, and convert it into a non-fossil fuel- whether that be hydrogen, a liquid fuel produced by pyrolysis, or a liquid fuel produced from H2/CO syngas.  Sadly, that’s a greenwash.  It’s incineration, once removed.  The details of that particular greenwash are handled in another of my articles:

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/waste-energy-fuels-great-greenwashing-machine-paul-martin

While you could make hydrogen from waste biomass, in fact the syngas from that waste biomass is worth more than the hydrogen you’d get by water-gas shifting the CO to CO2.  We’ll need lots of biomass derived fuels for shipping and aviation in a decarbonized future, and it makes way more sense to start with CO than with CO2.

Can You Make Hydrogen as a Byproduct?

A large fraction of hydrogen is currently made from petroleum.  Why?  How?  It’s a byproduct of cracking and dehydrogenation reactions, where alkanes are made into olefins and aromatics.  Some of that hydrogen is so mixed with other gases that it is simply sent to the fuel gas stream and burned, but that’s changing.   

Another major source of hydrogen today is as a byproduct of chlor-alkali manufacture.  When we electrolyze saltwater to make sodium hydroxide and chlorine, bleach etc., more hydrogen is produced today than all the “on-purpose” electrolysis of water (so-called green hydrogen) on earth.  Some of that hydrogen is wasted by venting it, some is burned as a fuel, and some is used to make hydrogen chloride.  Some is used to offset fossil hydrogen generation.

The pyrolysis of methane has also become a popular thing in the public imagination, since my former client Monolith commercialized the process of making carbon black and hydrogen from methane. 

Methane has a value that is only equal to its heat energy content, because at commercial scale, pretty much the only other thing that you can make from it that has any value is syngas. In a decarbonized future, fossil methane will be almost worthless.  That has led some people to conclude that it would make sense to make hydrogen from methane with carbon capture and storage (so-called “blue” hydrogen, which I call “blackish blue, bruise-coloured hydrogen”)

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/blackish-blue-bruise-coloured-hydrogen-spitfire-research-inc

Others realize that CCS is expensive, and that throwing away solid things is cheaper than burying giant quantities of gases.  Accordingly, they’ve concluded that it might make sense to pyrolyze methane just to make hydrogen, throwing away ½ of the feed energy and 3/4 of its mass into low value applications.  My bet is that they’re wrong.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hydrogen-methane-pyrolysis-paul-martin-vacnc

Certainly companies like Monolith, who make a truly valuable carbon product, and Transform who make a valuable chemical (acetylene) instead of carbon, have an easier shot at having a real business than those who want to sell only hydrogen.  But if you must sell carbon as a valuable product to have viable economics, methane pyrolysis will simply never be a major source of hydrogen. As my article linked above makes clear, all you need to understand that is a very basic mass balance.

Finally, it’s possible to make hydrogen as a byproduct of making other chemicals, including sulphuric acid.  If you do it the right way, the result is a dramatic (~50%) reduction in the electrical energy required to make a kg of hydrogen from water.  My client Peregrine Hydrogen is doing just that.  In their case, the same customers want the hydrogen and the sulphuric acid, so it has obvious market traction.

Disclaimer:  this article has been written by a human, who found the section about aluminium production to be particularly hard to write- there’s too much contradictory and poorly referenced data available to a cursory search, and an in-depth review of numerous LCAs was beyond my needs in this paper.  If you find good references which identify mistakes in my analysis, I’ll be happy to go back and correct my work, within reason, especially if it meaningfully affects the conclusions.

If, however, I’ve taken a dump on your pet commercial idea, feel free to contact my employer, Spitfire Research Inc., which will be quite happy to tell you to piss off and write your own article.

Green Hydrogen as a Fuel is a Zombie Meme Idea

TL&DR summary:  hydrogen as a fuel is a zombie idea.  Thermodynamics and the properties of the molecule ensure that it will never be alive in economic terms.  Hydrogen’s dirty present hasn’t meaningfully changed over the last 20 years, and hydrogen as a fuel isn’t a real decarbonization idea.  However, while it will never be alive, don’t be too hopeful- you can’t kill it.  It’s a meme.  It is the simpleminded answer you get when you ask the wrong questions about decarbonization.  And it’s too valuable as a predatory delay strategy to ever be truly abandoned.

I’ve seen a lot of claims in recent days, that the hydrogen as a fuel #hopium epidemic is showing signs of coming to an end.  That the hydrogen hyperbole bubble is popping.  That the hydrogen souffle, as Michael Liebreich calls it, is collapsing.  Governments and major businesses are starting to wake up and smell the rotten stench arising from the idea that decarbonization was as simple as substituting what gas flows in the natural gas pipelines, or swapping which fuel is used in vehicle and aircraft engines.  While these high profile cancellations and project collapses are all good, hopeful signs, this article serves as a warning.  Those who are hoping that the hydrogen hyperbole will rapidly shrink back to the nothing upon which it was based, are not being realistic. 

Hydrogen as a fuel isn’t a simple idea, or alternative among many, or tool in the toolbox etc.:  it’s a meme- an idea that spreads by imitation.  And while you can combat a meme, killing one outright is very difficult.

My previous writings have explained in detail that hydrogen is a massive commodity chemical, made the same way that it was 20 years ago:  99% of it is made from fossils such as natural gas and coal, with carbon capture nowhere in sight.  It is made where and when its unique properties as a chemical are required. Almost no hydrogen is made today by the deliberate electrolysis of water using dedicated new renewable electricity resources.  Hydrogen is rarely transported, and rarely burned as a fuel, unless it’s a byproduct without any other practical use nearby, or when it’s mixed with a bunch of low value gases to the point where its only value is its heat energy value.  The ~ 120 million tonnes of yearly world hydrogen production, both as a pure gas and as hydrogen in syngas, generates as much as 4% of world GHG emissions today- more than aviation, and almost as much as aviation and shipping combined.

Hydrogen is therefore a massive decarbonization problem, not a decarbonization solution to much of anything.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/hydrogen-from-renewable-electricity-our-future-paul-martin

The notion that we will use renewable electricity to make hydrogen for use as a fossil fuel substitute, however, remains popular in the public imagination.  Why is that?  Because the concept satisfies an important human need:  the need for familiarity.  We’ve spent 800,000 years as a species, burning stuff whenever we needed heat.  Very old ideas like that are almost woven into our DNA- they are very difficult to remove and re-think.

If you ask yourself the wrong question:  “We can’t burn fossils any more because of global warming.  What else can we burn?”, you often get hydrogen as a simpleminded answer.  Therein lies the mematic nature of

the “hydrogen as a fuel” concept.

This is very similar to a story told about the father of the periodic table, Dimitri Mendeleev.  People asked the great chemist, father of the periodic table, what he thought about burning petroleum as a heating fuel.  He said, “I suppose you could also keep warm by burning banknotes in the kitchen stove.”   Wasting hydrogen for low value uses for which it is poorly suited, is very much like burning petroleum- a precious, finite resource, of incredible value as a feedstock for making tens of thousands of materials and chemicals.  Even while we didn’t know for sure that the atmosphere wasn’t a free and limitless public sewer, Mendeleev saw the inherent waste in that decision.  And burning hydrogen- just like burning banknotes, or petroleum- is the “let them eat cake” of the energy transition.  It works as a concept only under the influence of #hopium about future prices, and OPM, i.e. “other people’s money”.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/refinery-future-thought-experiment-paul-martin-4pfoc

 For hydrogen, it’s even worse- because petroleum derived gasoline and diesel and jet fuel are highly effective fuels, even though they are burned in  comparatively inefficient engines.  The effectiveness- arising from the ease with which these energy dense liquids can be moved and stored- outweighed their inefficiency, at least until we understood global warming.  The need to collect or eliminate their combustion CO2 emissions, totally destroyed their effectiveness as transport fuels.

Sadly, hydrogen, when wasted as a fuel, is neither efficient nor effective.  And its properties, and its thermodynamics, ensure that it will never be either when it is wasted in that way.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/breakthrough-electrolyzer-efficiency-paul-martin

And no, it’s not getting as cheap as some seem to imagine.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/scaling-lesson-2-water-electrolysis-paul-martin

When you ask yourself the right question:  “We can’t burn fossils any more because of global warming.  How else can we make the energy services we need, without generating fossil GHG emissions?” , the answer to that question is rarely hydrogen!

Certainly not as a vehicle fuel.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/case-against-hydrogen-trucks-paul-martin-gq5mc

Not even as a fuel for “hard to decarbonize” vehicles like transoceanic ships and aircraft.  The ineffectiveness arising from hydrogen’s extremely low energy density per unit volume, even as an ultra-cryogenic liquid, kill those ideas dead- once you’ve spent a few minutes looking into the details.  So instead, we see people focusing on using hydrogen to make fuels from water-derived electrolytic hydrogen and CO2, or even worse, from nitrogen.  Trading even more efficiency in a vain attempt to gain some effectiveness.

Certainly also not as a heating fuel.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/why-hydrogen-blending-gas-network-bollocks-paul-martin-i5sdc

Not for homes and commercial spaces, where now about 60 independent studies have panned the idea as just what it is:  expensive nonsense, intended to keep us feeling happy about burning fossil gas for longer.

And not even for high temperature heating.  No, it still makes more sense to make heat from electricity directly, than indirectly through turning part of the energy in electricity into chemical energy in a fuel.  Not even for cement clinkering kilns.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/electric-heating-future-industrial-heat-paul-martin-8vvqc

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/can-hydrogen-help-green-cement-production-paul-martin-aibwc

It’s literally as simple as my Drake meme:  if you’re thinking the hydrogen you’re making is green, if the local grid isn’t green, you’re wrong- even if your project is islanded.  Remember that even in the best case, “green” hydrogen isn’t totally free of GHG emissions.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-green-hydrogen-lifecycle-basis-paul-martin-pbhyc

And even if the local grid is green, the focus must remain on the decarbonization of the easy to decarbonize sectors via direct electrification.  That’s going to yield the biggest reductions in GHG emission per dollar spent.  Only once that obvious problem is solved, should we begin to concern ourselves with making green hydrogen to replace black hydrogen, in applications where its unique chemical properties are needed.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/where-does-green-hydrogen-fit-paul-martin-oc8ac

 

And only after that is accomplished, should we be concerning ourselves with building new applications for green hydrogen as a chemical- the direct reduction of iron being an obvious one.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-martin-195763b_what-is-green-steel-simple-its-a-misnomer-activity-7293288766910156802-BGpN

So:  what can we expect? 

We can expect more plans, targets and studies.  More public money wasted on what is fundamentally a dead end.  A gradual morphing of the idea of hydrogen as a decarbonization panacea, to a narrower focus on industrial decarbonization (industries who can be enticed to participate in the scam by subsidies).  The shrinking of the concept of hydrogen as a fuel for cars and light trucks, to one for heavy trucks and heavy equipment- where it will also, gradually, fail.  And away from home heating to industrial heating, where it will similarly fail, for the same reasons:  the cost per tonne of CO2e emissions averted is just way, way too high.  Project plans will continue to be delayed or cancelled, failing to find willing offtakers at realistic prices for the product.

But will the idea die?  No way.  It will remain for a long, long time. 

Because it serves a key, important purpose:  it delays real decarbonization action.  It keeps us happy to burn fossils, for longer, in hope that the propellor-headed engineers and scientists will invent us a decarbonization strategy that allows us to keep doing what we’re comfortable with, without extra cost or a need to change anything.  It provides a nice, simpleminded fuel substitution- off at some point comfortably in the future, so we can keep burning fossils for now.  And there will be plenty of charlatans, shysters, and snake oil salesepeople out there to sell the public and our politicians on this simpleminded notion.

Disclaimer:   this article was written by a human, and hence is subject to error.  Provide me with corrections with good references and I will gratefully correct my work.

However, if your principal concern is that I’ve taken a dump on your pet idea, please contact my employer, Spitfire Research Inc., who will be happy to tell you to piss off and write your own article.